Pavel Dorofeyev Goals Scored Props • Vegas

T-Mobile Arena
Whenever the Oilers need a big win, it seems like a big goal from Leon Draisaitl is involved. He was a little too quiet in Game 4, and I don't see that happening two games in a row. I also don't see him going three straight games without a goal. He is the biggest goal-scoring threat the Oilers have, and as they look to close out this series, the Oilers will need him and Connor McDavid to step up. Draisaitl has eight goals in nine career playoff games against the Golden Knights.
Golden Knights captain Mark Stone has not looked like himself in this series, especially in the previous two games where he has logged just one shot on goal in each and hasn't found the scoresheet. The Vegas power play has gone 0-for-5 over the past two games, and its top unit has not been all that consistent through the playoffs. Stone hasn't been able to carry his team, and I don't see that changing in Game 5.
Evander Kane is coming off of a game where he tallied four shots on goal, and he has had a minimum of three SOG in five of nine 2025 playoff games. In his postseason career, Kane is averaging 3.02 shots per game, so this isn't uncommon territory for the Oilers' goal scorer. Getting this Kane prop at a plus number is an absolute no-brainer for me.
Vegas allowed just 2.41 goals per home game during the regular season, so surrendering 3.6 per during the playoffs is a sizable uptick. The climb also comes despite the Golden Knights allowing exactly 2.53 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five during both the regular season and through five home postseason games. With the season on the line, and Adin Hill posting a solid .910 save percentage at T-Mobile Arena during the regular season, I’m expecting Vegas and Hill to do the heavy lifting for this Under. Of course, Edmonton has also shown up since going down 0-2 to the Los Angeles Kings in Round 1. The Oil have won seven of eight white dominating five-on-five play with a 55.2 Corsi For percentage and 60.2 expected goals percentage. Edmonton has also held Vegas to just 10.66 expected goals through four Round 2 contests.
Last Meeting ( May 12, 2025 ) Vegas 0, Edmonton 3
Despite facing a 3-1 hole in their best-of-seven Western Conference second-round series, the Vegas Golden Knights aren't lacking confidence heading into Wednesday night's Game 5 against the Edmonton Oilers in Las Vegas.
"We did it last series," Vegas forward Reilly Smith said of winning three straight games. "We have a lot of faith in this group. Just take it one at a time."
The Golden Knights did rally from a 2-1 deficit to knock off the Minnesota Wild in six games in the first round, winning two of the final three games in overtime.
The difference this time is that there's no room for error against an Edmonton team that is 15-2 in Games 4-7 over the last two playoffs.
"It's do or die now," Knights star center Jack Eichel said.
The Oilers won Games 1 and 2 in Las Vegas before the Golden Knights rallied for a 4-3 victory at Edmonton, winning on a Smith goal with 0.4 seconds left. The Oilers bounced back from that bitter loss to blank Vegas 3-0 in Game 4 on Monday as goalie Stuart Skinner turned aside 23 shots for his second career playoff shutout.
The game wasn't that close. Adam Henrique scored twice in the first 13:03 and Evander Kane made it 3-0 with a goal early in the second period. Midway through the game, Vegas had just 10 shots on goal.
No surprise then that the Golden Knights, who also fell behind 2-0 to begin Game 3, are stressing the importance of a quick start on Wednesday.
"We have to start better," Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy said. "This is a couple games now where we're chasing it. ... Make sure we're on our toes. I don't think there were enough players on their toes, ready to go. That will be step one in Game 5, make sure we push the envelope early and get to our game quicker."
"We were probably a little bit passive and didn't put them on their heels enough," Eichel said. "I think we need to be more aggressive offensively, try to force them to make mistakes on their breakouts and get pucks back, and then make plays when we have opportunities, and get pucks to the net."
Edmonton coach Kris Knoblauch was asked about the importance of trying to close out the series on Wednesday.
"I don't think we're looking at how many games left that we have in the series," Knoblauch said. "It's a one-game mentality. (After) we lost Game 3 the way we did, it was forget about it and move on to the next one. Obviously, there's a lot of benefits of winning that next game. One, you don't give that opportunity for Vegas to put together a string of wins."
Knoblauch gave his team the day off on Tuesday before flying to Las Vegas.
"No meetings today," Knoblauch said. "As a coach, you can only do so much. You don't want to overcoach. I think today is a good day for the guys to step away, enjoy the win last night, and tomorrow they'll get the message of what we need to do."
The message is clear for the Golden Knights.
"You're at home, Game 5," Eichel said. "You win a game and go from there. It's all that matters at this point."
--Field Level Media