SF 7.0 o47.0
LA -7.0 u47.0
MIN -3.5 o36.0
CLE 3.5 u36.0
DAL -2.5 o46.5
NYJ 2.5 u46.5
DEN 3.5 o43.5
PHI -3.5 u43.5
HOU -1.0 o40.0
BAL 1.0 u40.0
NYG 2.5 o42.0
NO -2.5 u42.0
LV 7.0 o48.5
IND -7.0 u48.5
MIA -1.0 o44.5
CAR 1.0 u44.5
TB 3.5 o44.5
SEA -3.5 u44.5
TEN 7.5 o41.5
ARI -7.5 u41.5
WAS 3.0 o48.0
LAC -3.0 u48.0
DET -10.5 o49.5
CIN 10.5 u49.5
NE 8.0 o49.5
BUF -8.0 u49.5
KC -3.5 o45.5
JAC 3.5 u45.5
Los Angeles 1st AFC West3-1
New York 4th NFC East1-3
CBS

Los Angeles @ New York Picks & Props

LAC vs NYG Picks

NFL Picks
Rushing Yards
Omarion Hampton logo Omarion Hampton o66.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 days ago
Tom Oldfield image
Tom Oldfield
Betting Analyst

The hype around this Giants pass rush is valid, but their run defense has been a mess this year. The troubling signs were there in Week 1 as the Washington Commanders shredded New York for 220 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, and even the Kansas City Chiefs’ below-average rushing attack passed the 100-yard mark in New York last Sunday. That should allow the Los Angeles Chargers to ease the burden on Herbert, who threw 47 passes last time out, and the visitors won’t hesitate to tilt the script towards the run, particularly if they build a lead.

Rushing Yards
Omarion Hampton logo Omarion Hampton o62.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 days ago
Rohit Ponnaiya image
Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

Hampton entered the year as an OROY front-runner after the Chargers took him in the first round. The 220-pound RB has the power, speed and vision to thrive in an offense that loves to run the ball. Hampton's career got off to a slow start but he showed improvement last week, rushing for 70 yards on 19 carries against a tough Broncos defense. He gets an easier matchup in Week 4 against the Giants who are 30th in the league in defensive rush EPA and 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (153.3). Hampton was expected to be spelled by Najee Harris but the veteran tore his Achilles tendon. That mean a heavy workload for Hampton in a game where the Bolts should be working with a positive game script as 6.5-point favorites.

Spread
Los Angeles Chargers logo LAC -5.5 (-106)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 days ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

While this may have the look and feel of a letdown spot for the Chargers, the Giants have been held to single digit points in two of three games, and Los Angeles heads to the Big Apple with a defense allowing the fourth-lowest EPA per play with ranks of third in PFF grade and seventh in DVOA. 

Passing Attempts
Justin Herbert logo
Justin Herbert u33.5 Passing Attempts (-124)
Projection 30.68 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
EV Model Rating
With a 6-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on running than their typical approach.. Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Chargers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.4 plays per game.. The Los Angeles Chargers have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game results when facing windier weather this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Passing Yards
Justin Herbert logo
Justin Herbert u250.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Projection 232.58 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
EV Model Rating
With a 6-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on running than their typical approach.. Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Chargers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.4 plays per game.. The Los Angeles Chargers have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game results when facing windier weather this week.. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Malik Nabers logo
Malik Nabers o65.5 Receiving Yards (-130)
Projection 80.53 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
EV Model Rating
At a -6-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the New York Giants since the start of last season (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.
Receiving Yards
Keenan Allen logo
Keenan Allen o49.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 55.93 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
EV Model Rating
Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers.. Our trusted projections expect Keenan Allen to garner 7.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among WRs.. When talking about air yards, Keenan Allen grades out in the lofty 87th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, totaling a remarkable 80.0 per game.. With an excellent 54.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (81st percentile) since the start of last season, Keenan Allen ranks as one of the top WRs in the game in the NFL.. Keenan Allen's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 61.0% to 71.4%.
Receiving Yards
Cam Skattebo logo
Cam Skattebo o20.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 23.89 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
EV Model Rating
At a -6-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the New York Giants since the start of last season (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.
Receiving Yards
Theo Johnson logo
Theo Johnson o18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 21.31 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
EV Model Rating
At a -6-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the New York Giants since the start of last season (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.
Rushing Yards
Justin Herbert logo
Justin Herbert o16.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Projection 22.11 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
EV Model Rating
With a 6-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on running than their typical approach.. The Los Angeles Chargers have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game results when facing windier weather this week.. Justin Herbert has been much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this year (17.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (11.4%).. Since the start of last season, the poor New York Giants run defense has been torched for a monstrous 141.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.. The New York Giants safeties rank as the 27th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
Rushing Yards
Cam Skattebo logo
Cam Skattebo o53.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 61.61 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
EV Model Rating
At the present time, the 8th-most run-focused offense in the league (40.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Giants.. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the New York Giants since the start of last season (a staggering 58.6 per game on average).. Since the start of last season, the fierce Los Angeles Chargers run defense has yielded a feeble 4.71 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 25th-smallest rate in football.
Rushing Yards
Omarion Hampton logo
Omarion Hampton u70.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Projection 63.14 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
EV Model Rating
At the present time, the 2nd-least run-heavy offense in the league (36.0% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chargers.. Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to call the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Chargers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.4 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
Rushing Attempts
Omarion Hampton logo
Omarion Hampton u17.5 Rushing Attempts (-105)
Projection 15.34 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 days ago
EV Model Rating
At the present time, the 2nd-least run-heavy offense in the league (36.0% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chargers.. Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to call the 4th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The Chargers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 56.4 plays per game.. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
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LAC vs NYG Consensus Picks

View all Consensus Picks

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

66% picking L.A. Chargers

66%
34%

Total Picks LAC 1284, NYG 651

Spread
LAC
NYG

LAC vs NYG Props

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Justin Herbert Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers

Justin Herbert
J. Herbert
quarterback QB • L.A. Chargers
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.35
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.35
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. Since the start of last season, the feeble New York Giants defense has yielded a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Justin Herbert

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.35
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.35

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. Since the start of last season, the feeble New York Giants defense has yielded a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Malik Nabers Score a Touchdown Props • N.Y. Giants

Malik Nabers
M. Nabers
wide receiver WR • N.Y. Giants
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.51
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.51
Best Odds
Projection Rating

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the New York Giants since the start of last season (a staggering 58.6 per game on average). Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume. Opposing teams have rushed for the fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.45 per game) versus the Chargers defense since the start of last season. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Los Angeles's collection of DTs has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Malik Nabers

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.51
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.51

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the New York Giants since the start of last season (a staggering 58.6 per game on average). Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume. Opposing teams have rushed for the fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.45 per game) versus the Chargers defense since the start of last season. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Los Angeles's collection of DTs has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Omarion Hampton Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers

Omarion Hampton
O. Hampton
running back RB • L.A. Chargers
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.73
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.73
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. Since the start of last season, the feeble New York Giants defense has yielded a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Omarion Hampton

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.73
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.73

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. Since the start of last season, the feeble New York Giants defense has yielded a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Ladd McConkey Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers

Ladd McConkey
L. McConkey
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.38
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.38
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. Since the start of last season, the feeble New York Giants defense has yielded a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Ladd McConkey

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.38
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.38

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. Since the start of last season, the feeble New York Giants defense has yielded a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Cam Skattebo Score a Touchdown Props • N.Y. Giants

Cam Skattebo
C. Skattebo
running back RB • N.Y. Giants
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.55
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.55
Best Odds
Projection Rating

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the New York Giants since the start of last season (a staggering 58.6 per game on average). Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume. Opposing teams have rushed for the fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.45 per game) versus the Chargers defense since the start of last season. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Los Angeles's collection of DTs has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Cam Skattebo

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.55
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.55

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the New York Giants since the start of last season (a staggering 58.6 per game on average). Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume. Opposing teams have rushed for the fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.45 per game) versus the Chargers defense since the start of last season. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Los Angeles's collection of DTs has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Theo Johnson Score a Touchdown Props • N.Y. Giants

Theo Johnson
T. Johnson
tight end TE • N.Y. Giants
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.11
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.11
Best Odds
Projection Rating

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the New York Giants since the start of last season (a staggering 58.6 per game on average). Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume. Opposing teams have rushed for the fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.45 per game) versus the Chargers defense since the start of last season. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Los Angeles's collection of DTs has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Theo Johnson

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.11
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.11

At a -6-point disadvantage, the Giants are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the New York Giants since the start of last season (a staggering 58.6 per game on average). Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually lead to better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume. Opposing teams have rushed for the fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.45 per game) versus the Chargers defense since the start of last season. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Los Angeles's collection of DTs has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Oronde Gadsden Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers

Oronde Gadsden
O. Gadsden
tight end TE • L.A. Chargers
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.17
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.17
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. Since the start of last season, the feeble New York Giants defense has yielded a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Oronde Gadsden

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.17
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.17

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. Since the start of last season, the feeble New York Giants defense has yielded a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Tyler Conklin Score a Touchdown Props • L.A. Chargers

Tyler Conklin
T. Conklin
tight end TE • L.A. Chargers
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.08
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.08
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. Tyler Conklin has put up a monstrous 21.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile when it comes to TEs. Since the start of last season, the feeble New York Giants defense has yielded a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Tyler Conklin

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.08
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.08

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. Tyler Conklin has put up a monstrous 21.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 75th percentile when it comes to TEs. Since the start of last season, the feeble New York Giants defense has yielded a colossal 74.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL.

Russell Wilson Score a Touchdown Props • N.Y. Giants

Russell Wilson
R. Wilson
quarterback QB • N.Y. Giants
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.00
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.00
Best Odds

Tyrone Tracy Jr. Score a Touchdown Props • N.Y. Giants

Tyrone Tracy Jr.
T. Tracy Jr.
running back RB • N.Y. Giants
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.00
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.00
Best Odds

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

LAC vs NYG Top User Picks

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User Picks

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