Patriots @ Ravens Picks & Props

Our trusted projections expect Zay Flowers to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack near the goal line in this week's game (21.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.1% in games he has played). When it comes to air yards, Zay Flowers grades out in the lofty 80th percentile among wideouts this year, averaging a superb 71.0 per game. Zay Flowers has been in the 94th percentile for wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 67.7 figure this year. Zay Flowers's 71.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a significant gain in his receiving prowess over last season's 65.7% figure. The Patriots defense has conceded the 5th-most receiving touchdowns in the league to WRs: 1.14 per game this year.

Lamar Jackson has been among the leading TD throwers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 1.50 per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the New England Patriots defense this year (73.0% Adjusted Completion%). This year, the daunting New England Patriots run defense has conceded a paltry 0.50 TDs on the ground per game to opposing teams: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game. At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. Hunter Henry has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 27.9% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends. When it comes to air yards, Hunter Henry ranks in the towering 92nd percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a massive 42.0 per game.

With an extraordinary 26.4% Red Zone Target% (95th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews has been among the tight ends with the highest volume near the end zone in football. Mark Andrews's 35.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in football: 83rd percentile for tight ends. Mark Andrews grades out in the 86th percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.33 per game. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the New England Patriots defense this year (73.0% Adjusted Completion%). This year, the daunting New England Patriots run defense has conceded a paltry 0.50 TDs on the ground per game to opposing teams: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.

Derrick Henry has totaled a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage). Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the New England Patriots defense this year (73.0% Adjusted Completion%). This year, the daunting New England Patriots run defense has conceded a paltry 0.50 TDs on the ground per game to opposing teams: the 2nd-lowest rate in the NFL.

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game. At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. With a remarkable 18.0% Red Zone Target% (76th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs ranks as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the end zone in the league. The New England offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game. At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. The New England offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. The Ravens defense has allowed the 10th-most receiving TDs in football to running backs: 0.21 per game this year.

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -3-point underdog in this game. At the moment, the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. The New England offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.