Eagles @ Commanders Picks & Props

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 48.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 38.2. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 76.9% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a material improvement in his receiving prowess over last year's 63.6% rate. Deebo Samuel Sr. grades out in the 81st percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.33 per game.

The Eagles offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Commanders defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%). The Washington Commanders defense has been gouged for the 3rd-most touchdowns through the air in the league: 2.00 per game this year. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Washington's group of safeties has been lousy this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders. The leading projections forecast John Bates to be much more involved in his team's passing game near the end zone in this week's contest (8.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played). John Bates's 81.7% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a noteable progression in his receiving ability over last season's 70.2% figure. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's collection of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the worst in the league.

With a remarkable 16.7% Red Zone Target Rate (95th percentile) this year, Saquon Barkley has been as one of the pass-catching RBs with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL. Saquon Barkley has compiled a massive 3.0 air yards per game this year: 91st percentile among RBs. (This might not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage). Saquon Barkley's 19.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 93rd percentile for RBs. The Eagles offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board. Saquon Barkley ranks in the 85th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.13 per game.

Dallas Goedert has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 26.2% this year, which places him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs. When talking about air yards, Dallas Goedert ranks in the towering 87th percentile among TEs this year, accruing a massive 39.0 per game. The Eagles offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board. With a stellar rate of 0.64 per game through the air (98th percentile), Dallas Goedert ranks among the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to tight ends this year. The Washington Commanders pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.9%) versus tight ends this year (79.9%).

A.J. Brown has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 29.7% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts. In regards to air yards, A.J. Brown ranks in the lofty 92nd percentile among WRs this year, accruing a staggering 96.0 per game. The Eagles offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board. A.J. Brown ranks in the 94th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an outstanding 0.50 per game. The Commanders pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68%) to wideouts this year (68.0%).

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's collection of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the worst in the league.

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their usual game plan. At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has compiled a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among running backs. (That may not seem too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage). The Eagles defense has surrendered the 3rd-most touchdowns through the air in football to running backs: 0.29 per game this year. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's collection of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the worst in the league.