Buffalo @ New York props

The model projects the Jets to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Jets this year (a lowly 46.2 per game on average). Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume. Breece Hall's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 85.2% to 78.4%.

Khalil Shakir has gone over 2.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

The model projects the Jets to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Jets this year (a lowly 46.2 per game on average). Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume. The Buffalo cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best CB corps in the league this year in defending receivers.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 55.0% of their downs: the 6th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bills are forecasted by the model to call just 61.4 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week. The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 51.2 plays per game. Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being projected in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased ground volume. With a feeble 0.9 adjusted receptions per game (25th percentile) this year, Ty Johnson has been as one of the bottom pass-game RBs in football.

The model projects the Jets to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Jets this year (a lowly 46.2 per game on average). Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume. Tyler Conklin's 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season reflects a meaningful regression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 74.3% mark.

Keon Coleman has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 55.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bills are forecasted by the model to call just 61.5 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week. The Buffalo Bills have called the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 51.2 plays per game. The New York Jets linebackers project as the best unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to accrue 5.5 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs. Dalton Kincaid's 41.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 35.1.

Braelon Allen has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Jeremy Ruckert has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Dawson Knox has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Mack Hollins has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Ray Davis has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Mike Williams has gone over 2.5 in 2 of his last 9 games.

Allen Lazard has gone over 3.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Curtis Samuel has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.