Minnesota @ Tennessee props

The Titans have been the 5th-least pass-focused team in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 55.5% pass rate. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Titans are expected by the projection model to call just 62.6 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week. Calvin Ridley's pass-catching performance tailed off this year, averaging a measly 3.4 adjusted catches vs 4.6 last year. Calvin Ridley's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 58.9% to 48.5%. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Minnesota's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 8th-best in football.

The Vikings are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Minnesota Vikings have called the 8th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.4 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: fewest in the NFL. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Tennessee's group of safeties has been very good this year, profiling as the 7th-best in the league.

The Titans have been the 5th-least pass-focused team in football (context-neutralized) this year with a 55.5% pass rate. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Titans are expected by the projection model to call just 62.6 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week. Chigoziem Okonkwo's 10.7% Target Share this year illustrates a meaningful regression in his pass game usage over last year's 16.4% rate. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Minnesota's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 8th-best in football.

This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -6-point underdogs. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (38.0 per game) this year. Our trusted projections expect Tony Pollard to accumulate 3.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile among RBs. Tony Pollard has been a key part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 13.9% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile among RBs. Tony Pollard profiles as one of the top running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 3.1 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

The model projects the Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.3% pass rate. This week, Aaron Jones is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 88th percentile among RBs with 3.8 targets. Aaron Jones's 21.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 15.4. With a fantastic 3.1 adjusted receptions per game (93rd percentile) this year, Aaron Jones rates as one of the best pass-game RBs in the league. Aaron Jones's possession skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 75.0% to 88.2%.

The model projects the Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.3% pass rate. In this week's game, Justin Jefferson is forecasted by the projections to place in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.3 targets. Justin Jefferson's 79.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 70.9. With an excellent 5.9 adjusted receptions per game (95th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson places among the leading WRs in the game in the league.

Tyler Boyd has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Jordan Addison has gone over 2.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Josh Oliver has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Jalen Nailor has gone over 1.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Tyjae Spears has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.