Tampa Bay @ Carolina props

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Panthers, who are -6.5-point underdogs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year. While Tommy Tremble has garnered 7.1% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Carolina's offense in this game at 12.5%. This year, the weak Buccaneers pass defense has been torched for a whopping 83.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the biggest rate in the NFL. The Buccaneers linebackers rank as the 4th-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The model projects the Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.0% pass rate. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are anticipated by the projection model to call only 63.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week. The 2nd-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Carolina Panthers this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average). Chuba Hubbard's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 89.0% to 81.1%.

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Panthers, who are -6.5-point underdogs. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.

The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to pass on 55.8% of their opportunities: the 11th-lowest frequency on the slate this week. The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. With a bad 72.0% Adjusted Completion% (22nd percentile) this year, Cade Otton has been as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among TEs.

The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board. The Carolina Panthers safeties grade out as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

In this game, Mike Evans is forecasted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers with 7.7 targets. While Mike Evans has accounted for 19.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Tampa Bay's passing offense this week at 24.0%. The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board. Mike Evans's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 61.1% to 64.2%. The Panthers pass defense has been gouged for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.7%) vs. wideouts this year (68.7%).

Sterling Shepard has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

David Moore has gone over 3.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Rachaad White has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Adam Thielen has gone over 3.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.