Buffalo @ Miami props

The projections expect the Dolphins to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.7 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Dolphins have run the 6th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.7 plays per game.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Dolphins have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game results when facing improved conditions in this week's contest. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may suffer. Jonnu Smith grades out as one of the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 3.1 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 76th percentile. Since the start of last season, the porous Bills pass defense has yielded a monstrous 76.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 6th-highest rate in the league.

The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The projections expect this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.3% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Dolphins have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game results when facing improved conditions in this week's contest. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may suffer. In this game, Tyreek Hill is expected by the projection model to slot into the 99th percentile among wide receivers with 11.1 targets. Since the start of last season, the anemic Bills pass defense has surrendered a colossal 69.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume. The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board. Since the start of last season, the weak Dolphins pass defense has surrendered a whopping 70.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-worst rate in the league. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Miami's collection of CBs has been terrible since the start of last season, projecting as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Braxton Berrios has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 6 games.

Khalil Shakir has gone over 3.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Durham Smythe has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Dawson Knox has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Jaylen Waddle has gone over 4.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Mack Hollins has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Curtis Samuel has gone over 1.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.