Green Bay @ San Francisco props

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Packers are anticipated by the projection model to run just 62.4 plays on offense in this game: the fewest among all teams this week. The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Green Bay Packers this year (a mere 56.3 per game on average). Aaron Jones's 40.3% Route Participation% this year illustrates a meaningful diminishment in his passing offense volume over last year's 51.3% rate. Aaron Jones's 75.7% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a material decline in his receiving prowess over last season's 82.4% figure. The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Packers are anticipated by the projection model to run just 62.4 plays on offense in this game: the fewest among all teams this week. The 9th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Green Bay Packers this year (a mere 56.3 per game on average). The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Packers, who are massive -10-point underdogs. The 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year. In this contest, Romeo Doubs is projected by the projections to position himself in the 78th percentile among WRs with 5.9 targets. Romeo Doubs's 45.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 36.8.

This game's line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the 49ers, who are a heavy favorite by 10 points. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to pass on 52.4% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week. The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average). Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Packers, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 30.0 per game) this year. When talking about pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the San Francisco 49ers ranks as the worst in football this year.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see just 126.5 plays on offense run: the fewest among all games this week. Our trusted projections expect Brandon Aiyuk to accrue 7.3 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers. Brandon Aiyuk's 65.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 91st percentile for wideouts. Brandon Aiyuk has been one of the top WRs in the league this year, averaging an exceptional 4.7 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 87th percentile. Brandon Aiyuk's 74.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season signifies a material growth in his receiving proficiency over last season's 68.9% mark.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see just 126.5 plays on offense run: the fewest among all games this week. This week, George Kittle is expected by the projection model to finish in the 86th percentile among tight ends with 5.8 targets. George Kittle's 48.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 42.2. With a remarkable 4.0 adjusted receptions per game (86th percentile) this year, George Kittle ranks among the best tight ends in the pass game in the league.

Deebo Samuel has gone over 4.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Jayden Reed has gone over 3.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Dontayvion Wicks has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Luke Musgrave has gone over 1.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Jauan Jennings has gone over 1.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Bo Melton has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 7 games.

Christian Watson has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Kyle Juszczyk has gone over 0.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.