Tennessee @ Alabama Picks & Props

Bishop is running well at the moment, averaging better than eight yards a carry over his last three games. And Alabama have given up eight rushing touchdowns in five games against Power 5 opponents.

Alabama ranks 49th in tackling grade per PFF, and in the Bottom 25% nationally in explosive runs allowed. Bishop has a tendency to force missed tackles, and averaged over 4.5 yards after contact against both Mississippi State and Arkansas.

Bishop also had five breakaway runs last week against the Hogs. I like him to get a few here and I’ll back him to find paydirt for the fourth straight game. 

Alabama has allowed Ty Simpson to get hit of late, surrendering four sacks in each of the last two SEC contests. The Tide rank 92nd nationally in sacks allowed per game.

Tennessee's pass rush is first nationally with 4.33 sacks per game, but the Vols have upped the production with 15 over the course of three conference outings. Those sacks have cost opposing quarterbacks better than five yards per sack.

Simpson's last two games have seen him pick up just one yard in total, as he lost six yards on nine carries against Vanderbilt. I'm not going to be surprised to see another negative-yardage output here, but I seriously doubt he reaches double-digits against this pass rush. 

Horton's size makes him a matchup problem for many defenses. But even more for a Tennessee defense that has allowed 18 touchdowns in 23 red zone visits. 

He's become the go-to receiver inside the 20 for Ty Simpson, is third in targets, and leads the stellar Alabama receiving corps with 1.13 EPA/play.

Horton has found the endzone in four of his last five games, and will do so against a Volunteer defense that has surrendered seven passing scores in three SEC contests. 

Alabama's passing offence is starting to find its rhythm with Ty Simpson and his trio of receivers. He has now thrown for 1,678 yards with a 70% completion rate with 16 touchdowns compared to just one interception. Simpson and Bama lead the nation in EPA per dropback and face a Tennessee defense that ranks 75th in success rate, which has surrendered 31 or more points in three straight conference games.