Connecticut @ Los Angeles picks

I like the Over on 12.5 points for Jackson here at this price, and she’s cashed that prop in three of her last four contests, including a 14-point effort with two 3-pointers against the Minnesota Lynx on Thursday.
Now she gets to face the 3-17 Connecticut Sun, who allow a league-worst 87.9 PPG and gave up 48 second-half points to the Seattle Storm on Friday. This is a golden opportunity for the Sparks to put a disappointing 3-7 stretch behind them, and Jackson has established steady shot volume this season, with double-digit field goal attempts in 11 straight games. Jackson had 14+ points in three of the four meetings between these teams in 2024, and she’s trending towards a similar total today.

Charles leads the Connecticut Sun in scoring this season at 15.7 points per game, and she’s done the majority of her work down low and at the free-throw line. She can take advantage of a Sparks interior defense that’s allowed the third-most points in the paint (37.1) and the third-most second-chance points (11.7). Connecticut’s future Hall-of-Famer has grabbed at least 10 boards in each of her last two games, and her strong scoring and high number of free throw attempts showcase her recent aggression in the paint. Expect her heater to continue in this favorable road matchup.