Dallas @ Indiana picks

Indiana is slightly better ATS this season at 11-10, but the Fever have covered in just five of their last 10. Dallas is 2-3 ATS across its previous five road games, while Indiana is 2-3 ATS across its last five at home. The Fever have covered in three of the last five head-to-head matchups with the Wings. In the previous 10, Dallas’ offensive and defensive ratings have improved, while Indiana’s defensive rating has slipped. The Fever’s play has been up and down, with blowout wins over the Lynx and Dream mixed in with a blowout loss to the Valkyries and two losses to the lowly Los Angeles Sparks. The Wings have been too competitive to let this one get out of control, and I expect Paige Bueckers to shine on the brightest stage in her first matchup with Caitlin Clark. I’ll take Dallas to cover the double-digit spread on the road.