Indiana @ Seattle picks

Nneka Ogwumike has scored 25+ in three straight and is averaging 19 points per home game this season. She makes 76% of her shots inside the arc and 41% from downtown at home. Indiana doesn’t defend versatile scorers well, allowing opposing forwards to average 18.2 points per game while also allowing a tenth-best 36.5 points in the paint per contest.

Mitchell served up 20 points on 8-for-13 shooting in Sunday’s loss to the Las Vegas Aces, and I love the Over here on a line of 16.5 points, which feels a little low. She’s gone past this number in five of her last seven games, despite some rough outings from downtown, and the Fever will need another aggressive effort tonight against the Seattle Storm. Though she’s only making her triples at a 29% clip, Mitchell is a career 37% shooter from beyond the arc, so this year’s percentage feels like an outlier.

Caitlin Clark landed 37% of her triple attempts on the road last season. Seattle allows nearly three triples on 8.4 attempts per night from the guard position. Clark has knocked down 4+ triples in four of her previous eight games.