College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

Iowa State rolled to a 91-42 victory yesterday and will be locked in for a revenge game. The Red Raiders were the only team to beat the Cyclones at home this year, upsetting them 82-73 two weeks ago. The Raiders went 14-29 from deep in that contest and have been extremely perimeter oriented since All-American forward JT Toppin tore his ACL. With ISU third in conference play in 3-point defense (32.8%) expect major regression in that area. Texas Tech has also struggled with turnovers and defensive rebounding lately, leading to -11.5 extra scoring chances per game over their last four contests. That's bad news with the Cyclones fourth in the country with +7.2 extra scoring chances per game.

Expect the Missouri Tigers to slow down this game and to decisively cut into clean looks inside the arc, two aspects that work directly against Otega Oweh’s scoring.

Seton Hall is 12-2 ATS in its 14 games played away from Newark, and it's therefore no surprise that they check in at 15th in Haslametrics’ Away From Home rating. Creighton, meanwhile, limped to a 2-13 ATS finish in its last 15.

Blackwell could be on a mission versus Washington after the Huskies downplayed his shooting ahead of this Round 3 Big Ten tournament tilt. Player models already like John Blackwell to top his points prop against the Washington Huskies, with forecasts flirting with 20 points for the Wisconsin Badgers guard. Blackwell is a busy 3-point threat but can also create in isolation when the offense breaks down. Blackwell is coming off 25 points versus Purdue and with Nolan Winter likely sidelined, there are offensive touches up for grabs. His energy is too much for a tired Washington defense.

He dropped six dimes in the previous matchup. Wooley will be the primary driver on attack and kick actions, which is big for multiple reasons. The first is that Miami is in the bottom 20% nationally in defending against such actions. The second? Louisville is due for instant regression after a poor shooting performance yesterday. 

Pettiford is typically more a facilitator than a scorer, yet he has cleared this prop in three of his last four games and seven of his last 10. As Tennessee slows down this game, Pettiford will have fewer assist opportunities in transition, which should force him to pull up more on his own.

Despite a slow start to his college career, Brayden Burries now leads the Arizona Wildcats with 16.0 ppg. The five-star freshman has been even better lately, averaging 19.0 ppg on 50/40/82 shooting splits over his last 12 contests. He also dropped 18 points against the UCF Knights on the road when these teams previously clashed in January. The Knights play at a fast tempo and struggle defensively. They finished the regular season 125th in the country in adjusted defense while ranking 14th in conference play in opponent eFG% (54.6%). Burries has dropped 20+ points in three of his last four contests and should have another big game today.  

Nick Martinelli is a handful, so the Purdue Boilermakers will sell out on stopping him. He’s dished out three assists in both tournament games and had three assists versus Purdue on March 4.

Over his last 10 games for the Northwestern Wildcats, Jake West has attempted at least three triples and has made two or more 3-pointers in four of his last six outings. He did miss the matchup with the Purdue Boilermakers on March 4 (ankle). He now faces a team that fails to protect the perimeter. Purdue’s foes fire at a high rate from distance and with Northwestern pegged as a 12-point underdog, a trailing team will look to West’s shooting to close the gap.

Xavier plays little to no defense, and UConn is out for blood after failing to wrap up the regular season title due to a disappointing loss to Marquette in the finale.

Dan Hurley lives for March (18-3-1 ATS since 2022-23), and his offense — which averaged 91 ppg against Xavier in the regular season — should thrive against the Musketeers' porous defense (259th in adjusted efficiency since February 1). 

Xavier is 14-2 O/U in its last 16, surrendering 85.3 ppg in that span. It’ll get crushed on the offensive glass, and UConn should score at will.

Florida State’s defense, even an improved one, has struggled to defend pick-and-pop actions, allowing over a point per possession. Boozer will be the main facilitator there and will command doubles off those actions. I suspect that you’ll see him slice up the Noles with either those actions or kicking out to the perimeter off low-post doubles to Dame Sarr or Isaiah Evans. This is too low a threshold.

Donovan Dent has really been at the wheel of this UCLA offense since late January, handing out eight or more assists in seven of the past 10 games. He had 11 dimes versus Rutgers and is projected for 9+ against a Scarlett Knights ranked 318th in opponent assist-to-FGM ratio. The Bruins have had a couple days of practice to fine tune the offense and sit No. 8 in assist rate.

The Bruins finished the final 10 games of Big Ten play with the seventh best net rating and topped the conference in that metric over the final five contests. A big part of that boost was 3-point shooting. UCLA upped its activity from outside while also improving its success, knocking down almost 40% of 3-point attempts in the final five games.

Georgetown is without its leading scorer, KJ Lewis (14.9 ppg), leaving a massive void, as he also leads the team in usage rate (28.3%) and BPR (+5.69).

Who will step up? Former top recruit Vincent Iwuchukwu scored 17 points in the First Round, making it nine times in his team’s last 11 games that he’s scored at least 12 points.

Villanova has soft interior defense, ranking 223rd in shooting proximity and 222nd in defensive rebounding rate. The Wildcats have upped the pace lately, and opportunities will be available for Iwuchuckukwu down low.