Milwaukee @ Indiana picks

Milwaukee was the second-best team from the perimeter and from inside the restricted area in April. While Indiana was Top-10 against both those zones, its offense has been predicated on inefficient mid-range jumpers, which the Bucks have defended well, ranking 12th in the long mid-range over the last three weeks. I trust this Bucks offense to keep chugging and shake off an outlier performance in Game 1, particularly with Damian Lillard — responsible for a three-point uptick in offensive rating this season — back in the fold.

Andrew Nembhard does a little bit of everything for the Pacers, averaging 10 points, 5.0 assists, and 3.3 rebounds, but he’s been struggling to score the rock lately. The Canadian averaged just 8.0 ppg in April in six appearances. While he did score 17 points in Game 1, that was the first time Nembhard played well in a while. He cashed the Under in points in five of his last seven outings before that and scored a combined five points in his final two regular season games.

Bobby Portis Jr. is a crucial piece off the bench for the Bucks. He averaged 13.9 points and 8.4 rebounds per game during the regular season. Although he struggled in Game 1 with a mere four points off the bench, I’m not expecting another quiet night from him. The big man has cashed the Over in points in three of his last four contests, and he has played well against Indiana outside of the series opener, averaging 15.5 points in two meetings in the season. Portis isn’t always a consistent scorer as he does the dirty work in other areas, but overall, he’s been producing offensively lately. He’ll respond tonight and get into double-digits on the scoresheet as he looks to help the Bucks even up this series before heading back home. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been a consistent piece for the Milwaukee Bucks all season long and although they were blown out in the series opener, The Greek Freak still made his presence felt. He showed out for 36 points in the loss. Antetokounmpo finished the regular season with 30.4 ppg, and he’s cashed the Over in four of his last eight appearances. Giannis always has an enormous workload as the franchise superstar and while Damian Lillard may return tonight from a blood clot, don’t expect him to play heavy minutes off the bat. It’s still going to be Antetokounmpo carrying the Bucks.