Orlando @ Boston picks

Jayson Tatum led the Boston Celtics in scoring this season with 26.8 points per game. He delivered 25 or more points in 58 of 72 games, yet his points line is set comically low and comes with -115 odds. Boston’s superstar forward hit the Over in 80.6% of his games this season, which means our odds should be closer to -415. I’m all over this one. Tatum has found success against the Orlando Magic in recent contests. He played them only once this season and delivered 30 points. Last season, he finished with 30, 26 and 23, and the season prior, he dropped 26, 31, and 41. Tatum has scored at least 25 points in six of his last seven against the Magic, and I expect him to be at his best in this one. Orlando will try to turn this one into a dog fight and make things ugly for the finesse Celtics, and Tatum will need to take over on offense.

Boston ranks fourth in the NBA in defensive rating (110.1), allowing opponents to score just 107.2 PPG. With Paolo Banchero struggling with injuries this year, he only managed to face the Celtics twice, scoring 21 and 15 points in those outings, respectively. If anything, the Celtics' defensive intensity should ratchet up in the playoffs, which should mean even harder sledding for the Orlando offense. It’s hard to imagine Banchero breaking out today.

Payton Pritchard's scoring has come primarily from deep, as he averaged 3.2 threes made per game this season. But Pritchard didn’t find that level of success against the Magic, hitting only two shots from deep across three meetings against Orlando. Like the Celtics, the Magic have also been outstanding on defense this year, allowing just 105.5 PPG. They’ve also made a point of running opponents off the line, allowing the fewest 3-pointers attempted and made of any team in the NBA this season. 

Jayson Tatum is easily averaging a career high in assists, as he’s never gone over 4.9 per game until this year. I expect that trend to continue in the postseason, and until oddsmakers start to credit him for his passing (and the number of other offensive weapons he has around him), taking the Over on Tatum’s assists totals is a sharp play.