Golden State @ Miami Picks & Props

Trayce Jackson-Davis has made 79.3% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 11.7% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season. The 4th-quickest tempo away offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Warriors. The Warriors rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists). Trayce Jackson-Davis has attempted 3.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's attempted over the course of the season.

In contrast to last year's 37.8% rate, Patty Mills's field goal effectiveness has decreased this year to 31.7%. Among all players in the NBA, Patty Mills ranks in the 82nd percentile for personal fouls, compiling a massive 2.3 fouls per game while playing at home this year. This year when they are playing at home, the other team's starting SGs have shot 21.6% on 3-pointers (weakest in the NBA) vs. the Warriors, creating a difficult matchup. The Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA this year. The Heat rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

Nikola Jovic has made 2.0 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 higher than he's made in all games this year. The Heat have been the 6th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA while on their home court this year. The matchup against the Golden State Warriors is a positive one for shot attempts from the field; the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged the 5th-most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (14.4). The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in possessions today from sharing the court with the 4th-speediest pace road team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Golden State Warriors). Nikola Jovic has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 11 games at home, 35.0% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season while on his home court.

Jonathan Kuminga has made 7.9 baskets per game over the last 10 games, 1.7 higher than he's sunk in all games this season. This year when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PFs have averaged 46.4% on three-pointers (highest in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, creating a positive matchup. The 4th-quickest tempo away offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Warriors. The Warriors rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists). Jonathan Kuminga has sunk 3.8 free throws per game over the last 15 games on the road, 0.8 more than he's sunk in all games this season away from home.

The 4th-quickest tempo away offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Warriors. The Warriors rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).

The matchup against the Heat is a positive one for 3-point attempts; the other team's starting SGs have averaged the most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The 4th-quickest tempo away offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Warriors. The Warriors rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists). Brandin Podziemski has converted 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 35.9% higher than he's converted in all games this year. The matchup vs. Miami is a good one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a whopping 3.4 free throws per game this year when the Miami Heat are on their home court (9th-most in the NBA).

Bam Adebayo has sunk 68.3% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 15.9% more than he's converted in all games this year. Bam Adebayo has made 64.3% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 10 games, 33.7% more than he's made from beyond the arc overall this season. Out of all players in the league, Bam Adebayo lands in the 90th percentile for playing time, posting an enormous 33.6 minutes per game while at home this year. The Heat have been the 6th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA while on their home court this year. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in possessions today from sharing the court with the 4th-speediest pace road team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Golden State Warriors).

The Golden State Warriors have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the league over the last 5 games while on the road. Over the last 20 games when they are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have posted 15.2 points per game (4th-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat, resulting in a challenging matchup for offensive performance. The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer plays for the Golden State Warriors. Over the last 20 games when they are away from home, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 2.9 free throws per game (3rd-lowest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, struggling to draw fouls. Stephen Curry will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage generally worsens player performance for all stats.

Caleb Martin has attempted 5.2 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.6 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season. The Heat have been the 6th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA while on their home court this year. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in possessions today from sharing the court with the 4th-speediest pace road team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Golden State Warriors). Caleb Martin has sunk 91.7% of his free throws over the last 15 games at home, 11.4% higher than he's put through the net in all games this season when playing at home. Caleb Martin is expected to see an increase in effectiveness for all stats due to owning the home court advantage in this game.

Terry Rozier has tallied 31.6 minutes per game when playing at home this year, ranking in the 83rd percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA. The Heat have been the 6th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA while on their home court this year. This year when they are on their home court, the opposing team's starting PGs have tallied 24.4 points per game (highest in the league) against the Warriors, creating a strong matchup for offensive production. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in possessions today from sharing the court with the 4th-speediest pace road team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Golden State Warriors). Terry Rozier has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 11.4% higher than he's sunk in all games this year.

Andrew Wiggins has made 48.0% of his 3-point attempts over the last 15 games on the road, 11.8% higher than he's made from three in all games this season while playing away from home. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a strong one for shots from the field; the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the 7th-most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (12.2). The 4th-quickest tempo away offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Warriors. The Warriors rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists). Andrew Wiggins has sunk 3.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.0 more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year on the road.

Klay Thompson has attempted a lowly 8.8 treys per game this year, significantly lower than his 10.6 rate last year. The Golden State Warriors have been the 8th-least efficient shooting team in the league over the last 5 games while on the road. The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer plays for the Golden State Warriors. Klay Thompson stands to suffer a reduction in effectiveness across the board considering playing on the visting team in this game.

Among all players in the league, Jimmy Butler registers in the 92nd percentile, registering an enormous 21.4 points per game this year. Jimmy Butler has converted 48.1% of his attempts from downtown over the last 15 games at home, 11.7% more than he's made from downtown in all games this year playing at home. Among all players in the league, Jimmy Butler rates in the 93rd percentile for playing time, compiling a monstrous 34.0 minutes per game this year. The Heat have been the 6th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA while on their home court this year. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in possessions today from sharing the court with the 4th-speediest pace road team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Golden State Warriors).

The Heat have been the 6th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA while on their home court this year. The Miami Heat will likely see an increase in possessions today from sharing the court with the 4th-speediest pace road team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Golden State Warriors). Jaime Jaquez Jr. has converted 1.9 foul shots per game this year, ranking him in the 77th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Jaime Jaquez Jr. will have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court tends to improve player performance across the board.

Chris Paul has gone over 8.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Delon Wright has not yet played a game this season.

Thomas Bryant has gone over 5.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Haywood Highsmith has gone over 4.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.