Miami @ Denver Picks & Props

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 6thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. This year, the other team has captured 9.5 offensive boards per game (3rd-fewest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat (lessening possessions that could otherwise lead to more opportunities for offense). Reggie Jackson has successfully made 91.7% of his foul shots over the last 15 games, 13.1% more than he's made over the course of the year. Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have attempted 14.2 foul shots per game (lowest in the league) against the Heat, struggling to get to the foul line. Reggie Jackson will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city usually boosts player production for all stats.

Duncan Robinson has successfully made 4.0 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 more than he's made from 3-point range over the course of the season. Duncan Robinson has tallied 32.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.8 more than he's tallied over the course of the year. The Heat check in as the 3rd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 5 games. The matchup against Denver is a positive one; when the Nuggets have the home court advantage, they have given up the 29th-most points per game in the league to opposing starting SGs over the last 5 games (20.4). Duncan Robinson has made 95.8% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games, 9.9% higher than he's made over the course of the season.

Jimmy Butler has attempted a mere 13.3 shots from the field per game this year, significantly lower than his 15.6 rate last year. This year, the other team's starting SFs have totaled 3.9 3-point attempts per game (12th-fewest in the league) against the Nuggets, resulting in a tough matchup. The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games when playing away from home. The Heat will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from squaring off against the 4th-most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA this year (the Denver Nuggets). The Miami Heat have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Among all players in the league, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope places in the 83rd percentile for playing time, posting a colossal 31.4 minutes per game while playing at home this year. The matchup against the Heat is a positive one for three-point attempts; the other team's starting SGs have tallied the 30th-most three attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.3). Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 6thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. This year, the other team has captured 9.5 offensive boards per game (3rd-fewest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat (lessening possessions that could otherwise lead to more opportunities for offense). Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games at home, 9.3% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year when playing at home.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has successfully made 5.0 baskets per game this year, ranking him in the 76th percentile out of all players in the league. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has tallied 29.6 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 78th percentile. The Heat check in as the 3rd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 5 games. This year, their opposition has tallied 31.4 three attempts per game (2nd-lowest in the league) vs. the Nuggets, resulting in a difficult matchup.

Bam Adebayo has sunk 0.0% of his 3-point shots while on the road this year, ranking in the 7th percentile among all players in the league. The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games when playing away from home. The Heat will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from squaring off against the 4th-most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA this year (the Denver Nuggets). The Miami Heat have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Over the last 5 games, opposing teams have nabbed 13.8 offensive boards per game (2nd-most in the league) vs. the Nuggets (continuing possessions that can result in more opportunities for offense).

Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 7.6 buckets per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's put through the hoop overall this season. Michael Porter Jr. has tallied 31.3 minutes per game while playing at home this year, ranking in the 81st percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA. The matchup against Miami is a good one for 3-point attempts; when the Heat are on the road, opposing starting SFs have tallied the 28th-most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (5.8). Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 6thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. This year, the other team has captured 9.5 offensive boards per game (3rd-fewest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat (lessening possessions that could otherwise lead to more opportunities for offense).

The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 25 games when playing away from home. The Heat will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from squaring off against the 4th-most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA this year (the Denver Nuggets). The Miami Heat have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists). Over the last 5 games, opposing teams have nabbed 13.8 offensive boards per game (2nd-most in the league) vs. the Nuggets (continuing possessions that can result in more opportunities for offense). Tyler Herro will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium generally worsens player performance in all stat categories.

Out of all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier measures in the 94th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc, logging 6.9 per game this year. Terry Rozier has played 34.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the league: 92nd percentile. The Heat check in as the 3rd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 5 games. Terry Rozier has converted 95.8% of his free throw attempts over the last 10 games, 8.3% more than he's sunk in all games this season. Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PGs have attempted 6.2 free throws per game (28th-highest in the NBA) against the Nuggets, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

Nikola Jovic has sunk 51.2% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 9.5% more than he's made over the course of the season. Nikola Jovic has successfully made 65.6% of his shots from downtown over the last 5 games, 22.7% higher than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the season. The Heat check in as the 3rd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 5 games.

Nikola Jokic has been called for 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 more than he's been called for overall this year. This matchup is a favorable one for three-point attempts; opposing clubs have totaled the 7th-most three attempts per game in the league this year (36.7). The number of points registered against Bam Adebayo has been very low (12.0 per game) when defending other starting Cs this year (3rd percentile). The 4th-most sluggish tempo offense in the NBA this year has been the Nuggets. The Denver Nuggets are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from facing the most lethargic pace road offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Heat).

Jamal Murray has made 9.8 buckets per game over the last 10 games at home, 2.0 higher than he's converted in all games this season while playing at home. Jamal Murray has sunk 2.4 three-point shots per game this year, putting him in the 91st percentile out of all players in the NBA. Out of all players in the league, Jamal Murray registers in the 80th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 30.8 minutes per game on his home court this year. Over the last 10 games, the opposing team's starting PGs have logged 23.1 points per game (27th-highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, designating this as a good matchup for offensive performance. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 6thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

Aaron Gordon has sunk 65.7% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 8.7% more than he's made in all games this season. Among all players in the NBA, Aaron Gordon registers in the 78th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 30.1 minutes per game while playing at home this year. This year, the other team's starting PFs have shot 43.4% on three-pointers (29th-best in the NBA) against the Heat, creating a good matchup. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 6thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games. This year, the other team has captured 9.5 offensive boards per game (3rd-fewest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat (lessening possessions that could otherwise lead to more opportunities for offense).

Peyton Watson has gone over 5.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Christian Braun has gone over 5.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Caleb Martin has not yet played a game this season.