Oklahoma City @ Miami Picks & Props

Haywood Highsmith has made a measly 40.2% of his field goals this season, significantly less than his 46.1 rate last season. The matchup vs. the Thunder is a difficult one for three-point shots; the other team's starting SFs have put up the 14th-lowest three rate in the NBA this year (25.5%). The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games. The Miami Heat check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists). This year, the other team has secured 13.3 offensive rebounds per game (highest in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder (retaining possessions that can bring about additional chances for offense).

Nikola Jovic has converted 52.7% of his shots from downtown over the last 5 games, 11.3% higher than he's converted over the course of the season. The Heat are expected to get a boost in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the 8th-speediest pace team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder). Nikola Jovic has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 11 games at home, 75.0% higher than he's sunk over the course of the season while on his home court. As a team, the Heat have been among the best at getting to the charity stripe in recent days: 2nd-best in the league over the last 15 games, averaging 26.5 foul shots per game. This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting PFs have attempted 4.9 free throws per game (24th-highest in the league) vs. the Thunder, finding it easy to get to the charity stripe.

Among all players in the league, Duncan Robinson slots into the 95th percentile for three-pointers drained, putting up 3.0 per game this year. This year, opposing squads have shot 44.8% on field goals (weakest in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, marking this as a hard matchup. The Heat are expected to get a boost in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the 8th-speediest pace team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder). Duncan Robinson has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games at home, 25.0% more than he's put through the net in all games this year when playing at home. As a team, the Heat have been among the best at getting to the charity stripe in recent days: 2nd-best in the league over the last 15 games, averaging 26.5 foul shots per game.

The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a good one for shot attempts from the field; opposing starting SFs have averaged the 24th-most shot attempts per game in the NBA this year (12.2). The 8th-fastest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder. Over the last 25 games, their opposition has snagged 8.9 offensive boards per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Heat (reducing possessions that could otherwise lead to added opportunities for offense). Over the last 5 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 6.0 foul shots per game (28th-most in the NBA) against the Heat, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

Josh Giddey has converted 56.4% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 9.8% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season. Josh Giddey has converted 2.2 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 higher than he's converted over the course of the season. The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games. The 8th-fastest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder. Over the last 25 games, their opposition has snagged 8.9 offensive boards per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Heat (reducing possessions that could otherwise lead to added opportunities for offense).

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has attempted 12.7 shots from the field per game over the last 10 games at home, 2.1 higher than he's attempted in all games this year at home. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has tallied 36.5 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 6.2 more than he's tallied over the course of the year. The Heat are expected to get a boost in opportunities in this game from squaring off against the 8th-speediest pace team in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder). Jaime Jaquez Jr. has sunk 3.7 foul shots per game over the last 10 games at home, 1.3 more than he's put through the hoop overall this season while playing at home. As a team, the Heat have been among the best at getting to the charity stripe in recent days: 2nd-best in the league over the last 15 games, averaging 26.5 foul shots per game.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has accumulated 3.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 higher than he's accumulated in all games this season. The Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Thunder. The Thunder check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). In comparison to last season's 9.8 rate, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's foul shots sunk have regressed this season to 7.7 per game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will not possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to reduce stat production in all facets of the game.

The number of field goal attempts against Bam Adebayo has been quite low (8.6 per game) when matched up against other starting Cs this year (4th percentile). The Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Thunder. The Thunder check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). The showdown with Bam Adebayo when it comes to drawing fouls places in the 11th percentile for difficulty with the opposing team's starting Cs attempting a mere 2.7 free throws per game this year when they are away from home. Chet Holmgren should see a decline in productivity in all facets of the game considering playing on the visting team in this matchup.

Cason Wallace has made 1.8 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 higher than he's converted from three overall this season. The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games. The 8th-fastest tempo team in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder. Over the last 25 games, their opposition has snagged 8.9 offensive boards per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Heat (reducing possessions that could otherwise lead to added opportunities for offense). Cason Wallace has sunk 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 15.0% more than he's made in all games this season.

Tyler Herro has committed 0.4 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 0.2 higher than he's committed in all games this year at home. The matchup against Oklahoma is a hard one for field goals; when the Thunder are the visiting squad, the other team's starting SGs have posted the 15th-lowest Field Goal% in the league this year (34.7%). The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games. The Miami Heat check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists). This year, the other team has secured 13.3 offensive rebounds per game (highest in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder (retaining possessions that can bring about additional chances for offense).

The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games. The Miami Heat check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists). This year, the other team has secured 13.3 offensive rebounds per game (highest in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder (retaining possessions that can bring about additional chances for offense). This matchup may be a favorable one for getting to the charity stripe; opposing clubs have attempted a monstrous 31.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games (most in the league).

This year when they are away from home, opposing clubs have averaged 38.1% on threes (5th-highest in the NBA) against the Heat, creating a good matchup. The Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Thunder. The Thunder check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Isaiah Joe will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road usually decreases stat production in all stat categories.

Jalen Williams has successfully made 66.7% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 13.3% more than he's put through the net in all games this year. Jalen Williams has successfully made 59.8% of his 3-point attempts over the last 15 games, 14.2% more than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the season. Jalen Williams has tallied 32.1 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 84th percentile. The Oklahoma City Thunder check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 15 games. The matchup against Miami is a positive one for 3-point shots; when the Heat are on their home court, the other team's starting PFs have shot for the 30th-highest three rate in the NBA this year (46.4%).

While on the visiting team and matched up against opposing starting Cs, Chet Holmgren rates in the 3rd percentile with a mere 0.9 3-point shots attempted against him per game this year. The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games. The Miami Heat check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists). This year, the other team has secured 13.3 offensive rebounds per game (highest in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder (retaining possessions that can bring about additional chances for offense).

Josh Richardson has gone over 10.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.