Seattle Mariners Picks
1st in American League West
(31 - 29)
Next Game
Mon, Jun 1
21:40 ET
NYM @ SEA Picks
MLB Picks
Moneyline
SEA (-130)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Seattle Mariners are trading as -130 favorites against the New York Mets, and I’m hitting the button on that number because I price the Mariners closer to -150 favorites in this spot. The Mets are expected to stack the top of their lineup with left-handed bats against the right-handed Emerson Hancock, but he has made some important adjustments to his pitch mix this season. As a result, left-handed hitters are batting just .209 with a .623 OPS against him. The changeup was a major problem for Hancock last season, as he surrendered plenty of home runs off that pitch. This year, however, he has leaned much more heavily on a back-foot slider and a four-seam fastball. That adjustment has played a significant role in his success and should serve him well in this matchup against the Mets.
Total Bases
Rob Refsnyder o1.5 Total Bases (+290)
Projection 1.31
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Rob Refsnyder ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. Among all stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the majors.. Considering Austin Warren's large platoon split, Rob Refsnyder will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today.
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 2.16
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Among all stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the majors.. Considering Emerson Hancock's large platoon split, Juan Soto will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Carson Benge o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Carson Benge's BABIP ability is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Carson Benge has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (55% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Carson Benge will hold the platoon advantage over Emerson Hancock in today's game... and moreover, Hancock has a large platoon split.. Carson Benge has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Total Bases
Brett Baty o1.5 Total Bases (+250)
Projection 1.35
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Brett Baty will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Emerson Hancock in today's game... and the cherry on top, Hancock has a large platoon split.. Brett Baty has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 14th-weakest out of every team in action today.. With a .345 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season, Brett Baty finds himself in the 80th percentile for hitting ability.
Total Bases
Mark Vientos o1.5 Total Bases (+181)
Projection 1.43
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run ability, Mark Vientos ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mark Vientos is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Among all stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the majors.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 14th-weakest out of every team in action today.
Total Bases
Bo Bichette o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette as the 6th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average skill.. Bo Bichette is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Among all stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Bo Bichette has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 14th-weakest out of every team in action today.
Total Bases
Julio Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (+118)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his batting average talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 9th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the majors.. Julio Rodriguez will have the handedness advantage against Austin Warren in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Warren has a large platoon split.
Total Home Runs
Juan Soto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+320)
Projection 0.31
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Among all stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the majors.. Considering Emerson Hancock's large platoon split, Juan Soto will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.
Total Home Runs
Rob Refsnyder o0.5 Total Home Runs (+900)
Projection 0.13
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Rob Refsnyder ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. Among all stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the majors.. Considering Austin Warren's large platoon split, Rob Refsnyder will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today.
Total RBIs
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Among all stadiums, T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest average fence height.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest in the majors.. Considering Emerson Hancock's large platoon split, Juan Soto will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.
