Athletics Athletics Picks
2nd in American League West
(36 - 36)
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MLB Picks
Zack Gelof o0.5 Total Home Runs (+517)
Zack Gelof might not be the first name that comes up when talking about the power in the Athletics lineup, but he is slugging .600 over his last 13 games with three home runs and a 164 wRC+. He is also +517 to go deep today in arguably the best home run environment on the board. That's a big difference compared to teammates like Nick Kurtz, who is priced shorter than +200 in some spots. The launching pad that is Sutter Health Park is helping everyone these days, and the 85-degree temperatures are the hottest on the slate. Gelof is hitting 40% of his balls to center field, where the double-digit winds are providing a boost today, and more than 50% of his batted balls are getting in the air. This home run has a fair price of around +420, per the projections at Covers. From the starting pitcher to the bullpen, form, price, and hitting environment, there is a lot to like about Gelof today.
o10.5 (-120)
Everything points to runs at Sutter Health Park tonight. Mitch Keller has been getting crushed, allowing 18 earned runs over his last three starts while carrying an 8.70 ERA across his last six. The A's counter with Jack Perkins, who owns a 6.20 ERA and rarely works deep into games. With both bullpens struggling, the A's swinging hot bats, and winds blowing out, this sets up as a prime Over spot.
Nick Kurtz o0.5 Total Home Runs (+232)
Kurtz projects as the second-most likely hitter to go deep today and carries a fair price below +200. Kurtz leads all hitters with 10 home runs over the last 30 days and owns the fourth-best slugging percentage over that stretch. It's the best hitting environment on the slate today, with 85-degree temperatures and double-digit winds blowing out to center field. He'll face Keller and a Pittsburgh bullpen that owns the fourth-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks.
Look for the Athletics to tee off on Pirates righty Mitch Keller at the Sutter Health Park launching pad. He conveniently sports the ninth-highest xERA and ninth-lowest strikeout percentage among qualified starting pitchers, and Keller has fanned four or fewer batters in five of his past seven starts. The Athletics also pace the majors in wOBA while striking out at the fourth-lowest clip in baseball at home, and outfielder Tyler Soderstrom has posted a rock-solid .379 wOBA and .220 ISO against righties at Sutter Health the past two years and hits in the heart of the order.
