Miami @ Texas Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Duran in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Ezequiel Duran will hold that advantage today. Ezequiel Duran has notched a .326 BABIP this year, placing in the 81st percentile.

Josh Smith will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eury Perez in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Josh Smith will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Josh Smith's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.9%. Posting a 1.78 K/BB rate this year, Josh Smith has shown strong plate discipline, checking in at the 77th percentile.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jonah Heim will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, going from 11.1% to 15.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Wyatt Langford will hold that advantage today. Wyatt Langford has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 13.6% seasonal rate to 21.7% in the past two weeks' worth of games. Wyatt Langford has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 96.7-mph over the last 14 days.

Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Graham Pauley will have an advantage today. The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Graham Pauley ranks in the 78th percentile with a 17.7° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in the game. In terms of plate discipline, Graham Pauley's ability is quite strong, posting a 1.83 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 83rd percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jake Burger ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jake Burger has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Jake Burger will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Jake Burger has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 13.6% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the past two weeks. Over the past 14 days, Jake Burger's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.3-mph over the course of the season to 98.2-mph in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Xavier Edwards is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Xavier Edwards will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Merrill Kelly today. The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Xavier Edwards ranks in the 83rd percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .276.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game. The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Otto Lopez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph to 91.1-mph over the past week. Otto Lopez has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .296 rate is a fair amount lower than his .336 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. In notching a .330 BABIP this year, Connor Norby is positioned in the 84th percentile.

Liam Hicks is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Liam Hicks will have an advantage in today's game. The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Liam Hicks has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 87.3-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 84.8-mph mark. When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs), Liam Hicks and his 21.9% rank in the 100th percentile this year.

Agustin Ramirez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Agustin Ramirez has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 11.1% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the last week. As it relates to his batting average, Agustin Ramirez has suffered from bad luck this year. His .234 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .263.

Rowdy Tellez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage in today's game. Rowdy Tellez has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.1% rate last season to 14.4% this year. Rowdy Tellez has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.8-mph figure.

Jakob Marsee is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. Jakob Marsee will have the handedness advantage over Merrill Kelly in today's game. The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Jakob Marsee has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 92.7-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 90-mph. Jakob Marsee is in the 96th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (56.2% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Josh Jung is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Josh Jung will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Josh Jung has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 89-mph average to last season's 86.2-mph figure. Josh Jung has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.4-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal figure of 93.3-mph.

The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 81st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Adolis Garcia is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Adolis Garcia will hold that advantage today. Adolis Garcia has been unlucky this year, putting up a .287 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .324 — a .037 discrepancy.

Michael Helman will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. In the last week, Michael Helman's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93-mph over the course of the season to 100.9-mph of late. Michael Helman's footspeed has gotten better this year. His 28.55 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.44 ft/sec now.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Cody Freeman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the last week, Cody Freeman has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 9.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 6.8°.

The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Over the last 7 days, Heriberto Hernandez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11.4% up to 28.6%. Heriberto Hernandez has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 89.9-mph figure. Heriberto Hernandez's launch angle recently (35° over the last 7 days) is considerably better than his 14.7° seasonal figure. Heriberto Hernandez has posted a .329 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 75th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Joc Pederson ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Joc Pederson is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Batting from the opposite that Eury Perez throws from, Joc Pederson will have an edge today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Joc Pederson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Joc Pederson has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .183 figure is a fair amount lower than his .221 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Alejandro Osuna is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Alejandro Osuna will hold the platoon advantage against Eury Perez today. Alejandro Osuna will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. In terms of his batting average, Alejandro Osuna has been unlucky this year. His .208 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .267. By putting up a 1.47 K/BB rate this year, Alejandro Osuna has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, ranking in the 92nd percentile.

Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Troy Johnston will have the upper hand in today's game. The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today. Troy Johnston has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.2-mph average. Troy Johnston's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 56.3% on the season to 66.7% over the past week. Troy Johnston has been hot recently, posting a a 15.8% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Javier Sanoja has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.