Boston @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Everson Pereira in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the opposite that Connelly Early throws from, Everson Pereira will have an advantage today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Everson Pereira will hold that advantage today. Everson Pereira has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 99.1-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.9-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Josh Lowe will hold that advantage in today's game. Josh Lowe has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .223 BA is a fair amount lower than his .260 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his batting average ability, Chandler Simpson is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Chandler Simpson is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Chandler Simpson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the past 14 days, Chandler Simpson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 80.7-mph over the course of the season to 84.8-mph of late.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Junior Caminero will hold the platoon advantage over Connelly Early in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage today.

This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Nathaniel Lowe will hold the platoon advantage over Joe Boyle in today's matchup. Nathaniel Lowe may have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP. Among every team today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Williams in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Hitting from the opposite that Connelly Early throws from, Carson Williams will have the upper hand in today's game. Carson Williams will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Carson Williams has made substantial strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 11.1% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the past 14 days.

When it comes to his batting average talent, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the opposite that Connelly Early throws from, Yandy Diaz will have an edge in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Brandon Lowe pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 12th-best batter in the majors when estimating his BABIP ability. Romy Gonzalez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Romy Gonzalez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Among every team today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Jake Mangum is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Jake Mangum has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Jake Mangum will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 77th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Among every team today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. Ceddanne Rafaela's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (16° over the past two weeks) is significantly better than his 12.6° seasonal angle. Ceddanne Rafaela has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .300 figure is a good deal lower than his .316 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Christopher Morel will hold the platoon advantage against Connelly Early today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage today.

This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Among every team today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. Connor Wong has been unlucky this year, putting up a .235 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .297 — a .062 disparity. Placing in the 84th percentile, Connor Wong has posted a .319 BABIP since the start of last season.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Among every team today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. Checking in at the 88th percentile, Alex Bregman has posted a .361 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Jarren Duran's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the opposite that Joe Boyle throws from, Jarren Duran will have an advantage in today's game. Jarren Duran is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP.

Trevor Story's BABIP skill is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Trevor Story has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among every team today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the opposite that Connelly Early throws from, Nick Fortes will have an advantage today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Nick Fortes will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Nick Fortes has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 87.6-mph average to last year's 84.1-mph EV.

This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Carlos Narvaez has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Among every team today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays. In the last 14 days, Carlos Narvaez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.4-mph over the course of the season to 94.8-mph in recent games.

This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Tristan Gray will hold that advantage in today's game. Tristan Gray's launch angle in recent games (21.1° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is significantly higher than his 16.4° seasonal angle. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.335) may lead us to conclude that Tristan Gray has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .261 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 4th in the lineup today. This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the opposite that Joe Boyle throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have an advantage in today's matchup. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Masataka Yoshida has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). This matchup is forecasted to have the 15th-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Hitting from the opposite that Joe Boyle throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand today. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Wilyer Abreu can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Wilyer Abreu pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.