Boston @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Josh Lowe will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Josh Lowe has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .225 BA is significantly deflated relative to his .263 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jarren Duran's BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Hitting from the opposite that Adrian Houser throws from, Jarren Duran will have an advantage in today's game. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Christopher Morel ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Christopher Morel will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Christopher Morel has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 10.3% rate last season to 16.6% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Junior Caminero will have an edge in today's game. Junior Caminero will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Alex Bregman is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Bats such as Alex Bregman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Adrian Houser who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Alex Bregman has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last year's 90.9-mph EV.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Tristan Gray will hold that advantage in today's game. Tristan Gray's launch angle of late (22.5° in the past two weeks' worth of games) is a significant increase over his 16.9° seasonal mark. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.345) provides evidence that Tristan Gray has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .261 actual wOBA.

When it comes to his batting average ability, Chandler Simpson is projected as the 16th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Chandler Simpson is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Chandler Simpson will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Chandler Simpson's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 80.7-mph over the course of the season to 84.8-mph of late.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Carlos Narvaez has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Carlos Narvaez has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 92.5-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Everson Pereira in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Everson Pereira is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Batting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Everson Pereira will have an advantage today. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Everson Pereira will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Trevor Story's BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Trevor Story is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Trevor Story has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.9°, Trevor Story has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 18.9° mark in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Williams in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Carson Williams will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in today's matchup. Carson Williams will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. Carson Williams has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 20% in the last two weeks.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 12th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Romy Gonzalez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Romy Gonzalez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Romy Gonzalez has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.4-mph average to last season's 92.7-mph mark.

Ceddanne Rafaela's batting average talent is projected to be in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Ceddanne Rafaela has suffered from bad luck this year. His .300 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .314.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 7th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his batting average ability. Yandy Diaz is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Yandy Diaz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Jake Mangum is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Jake Mangum has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Jake Mangum will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Nathaniel Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Adrian Houser today. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nathaniel Lowe stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 90th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Batting from the opposite that Adrian Houser throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Masataka Yoshida may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88°. Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Nick Fortes will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Nick Fortes will hold that advantage today. Nick Fortes has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.4-mph average to last year's 84.1-mph mark. In the past 7 days, Nick Fortes's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.6%.