Cincinnati @ St. Louis Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Thomas Saggese will hold that advantage today. Thomas Saggese has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.1-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.2-mph average.

Alec Burleson's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Considering Brady Singer's large platoon split, Alec Burleson will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Given Brady Singer's large platoon split, Lars Nootbaar will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Lars Nootbaar can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

James Crooks's BABIP skill is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. James Crooks will have the handedness advantage against Brady Singer today... and moreover, Singer has a large platoon split. James Crooks has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Cincinnati Reds only has 1 same-handed RP. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in the game when assessing his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Andre Pallante in today's game. Elly De La Cruz has notched a .337 BABIP this year, placing in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Matt McLain hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. In the last 14 days, Matt McLain has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 22.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.8°. Matt McLain has been unlucky this year, posting a .292 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .322 — a .030 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage today.

Nolan Gorman is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Because of Brady Singer's large platoon split, Nolan Gorman will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nolan Gorman stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nolan Arenado's true offensive skill to be a .305, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .019 difference between that figure and his actual .286 wOBA.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Willson Contreras's 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.5%. Willson Contreras has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .344 rate is a fair amount lower than his .365 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Sporting a .350 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Willson Contreras is positioned in the 80th percentile.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Extreme groundball hitters like Spencer Steer are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Andre Pallante. Spencer Steer's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (16.7°) is a significant increase over his 11.5° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 87th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Gavin Lux is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Gavin Lux will have an advantage in today's matchup. Gavin Lux hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Victor Scott II will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brady Singer in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Singer has a large platoon split. Victor Scott II is likely to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Cincinnati Reds has just 1 same-handed RP. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Sal Stewart's batting average talent is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Sal Stewart is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. In the past two weeks, Sal Stewart's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 19.4% up to 22.6%. Posting a 95-mph average exit velocity over the last 14 days, Sal Stewart has been in great form of late.

TJ Friedl is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. TJ Friedl will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's game. TJ Friedl has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 90.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 87.1-mph figure. TJ Friedl has shown favorable plate discipline this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile with a 1.4 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Brendan Donovan is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Brendan Donovan will have the handedness advantage against Brady Singer today... and the cherry on top, Singer has a large platoon split. Brendan Donovan will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Cincinnati Reds has just 1 same-handed RP.

Ivan Herrera's batting average skill is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage today.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Will Benson ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Will Benson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Will Benson will have the upper hand in today's game. Will Benson hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke'Bryan Hayes in the 75th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Ke'Bryan Hayes's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 7.5% to 12.2%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ke'Bryan Hayes's true offensive skill to be a .292, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .022 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .270 wOBA.

Noelvi Marte is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Compared to his seasonal average of 12.5°, Noelvi Marte has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 23.3° figure in the past week. Ranking in the 96th percentile, the hardest ball Noelvi Marte has made contact with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 116.7 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power skill. Noelvi Marte has compiled a .314 BABIP this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Compared to last season, Jose Trevino has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 35.3% to 40.5% this season.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense grades out as the 4th-worst out of all the teams on the slate today. Pedro Pages will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Austin Hays is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature on the slate today at 86°. Austin Hays has recorded a .322 BABIP this year, placing in the 80th percentile.