San Francisco @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Thomas Saggese's BABIP skill is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Thomas Saggese has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Thomas Saggese will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Posting a .344 BABIP this year, Thomas Saggese grades out in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jordan Walker has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 11% seasonal rate to 18.5% over the last two weeks. Jordan Walker's launch angle of late (29.3° in the last week's worth of games) is quite a bit higher than his 11.3° seasonal figure.

Batting from the opposite that Kai-Wei Teng throws from, Nathan Church will have an advantage today. Nathan Church will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

James Crooks's BABIP ability is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). James Crooks is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today. James Crooks will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kai-Wei Teng in today's game. James Crooks will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. In the last week's worth of games, James Crooks's swing has been well optimized for base hits, notching a 55.6% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of -4° to 26°.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Rafael Devers will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Over the last 14 days, Rafael Devers has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 15.5% to 22.2%.

As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Patrick Bailey will get to bat from his good side against Sonny Gray in today's game. Patrick Bailey's launch angle lately (20.1° in the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 15.6° seasonal mark. Patrick Bailey's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 15.4% to 18.7%. Despite posting a .256 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Patrick Bailey has had bad variance on his side given the .025 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .281.

Masyn Winn's batting average ability is projected to be in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masyn Winn is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Masyn Winn will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Masyn Winn has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 96.6-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 89.6-mph. There has been a significant improvement in Masyn Winn's launch angle from last year's 13° to 16.1° this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jung Hoo Lee in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Jung Hoo Lee will have an advantage in today's game. Jung Hoo Lee is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP. In the last 7 days, Jung Hoo Lee's 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.7%. Using Statcast metrics, Jung Hoo Lee is in the 86th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .279.

Luis Matos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Luis Matos's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 11.8% to 19.4%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. Batting from the opposite that Kai-Wei Teng throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an advantage today. Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.5% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Lars Nootbaar will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Willy Adames is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Compared to his seasonal average of 21.5°, Willy Adames has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 38.3° mark over the last week. Willy Adames has been unlucky this year, posting a .321 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .340 — a .019 deviation.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Heliot Ramos ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Heliot Ramos is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup. Heliot Ramos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Heliot Ramos has notched a .325 BABIP this year.

Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (66% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Batting from the opposite that Kai-Wei Teng throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an advantage today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Nolan Gorman has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 101-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 93.5-mph. Over the last 14 days, Nolan Gorman has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 26.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 23.6°.

Hitting from the opposite that Kai-Wei Teng throws from, Victor Scott II will have an edge in today's matchup. Victor Scott II will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Over the last week, Victor Scott II's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.6-mph over the course of the season to 93.8-mph of late. In terms of his batting average, Victor Scott II has been unlucky this year. His .226 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .241.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Pedro Pages has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph to 93.3-mph in the past 14 days.

Andrew Gilbert will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today's matchup. Andrew Gilbert has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals only has 1 same-handed RP. Over the past 14 days, Andrew Gilbert's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.3% up to 13%. Andrew Gilbert has hit one of the hardest balls in Major League Baseball over the last week — 109.8-mph — which is a good proxy for recent form and raw power.

Over the last 7 days, Casey Schmitt's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9% up to 30%. Casey Schmitt has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.9-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90-mph figure. In the past two weeks, Casey Schmitt has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 21.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.8°. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Casey Schmitt has had some very poor luck this year. His .312 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .339.

Jose Fermin will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jose Fermin has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .255 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .275.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Ivan Herrera will hold that advantage today. This season, Ivan Herrera has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98 mph compared to last year's 91.5 mph mark. In the last week, Ivan Herrera's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 98-mph over the course of the season to 102.1-mph recently.

Dominic Smith is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Dominic Smith will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today's game. Dominic Smith will probably have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP. Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Dominic Smith's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 41.2% to 52.2%.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Matt Chapman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Matt Chapman is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Matt Chapman has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 10.9% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last two weeks. Matt Chapman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 11.2% to 16.4%.

Andrew Knizner's quickness has improved this season. His 25.01 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.84 ft/sec now. Andrew Knizner has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .186 figure is deflated compared to his .237 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.