St. Louis @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage over Adrian Houser today. Nolan Gorman pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Nolan Gorman tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Adrian Houser.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Jordan Walker has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.3-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 92.3-mph average. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jordan Walker's true offensive talent to be a .308, providing some evidence that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .037 deviation between that mark and his actual .271 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Hitting from the opposite that Adrian Houser throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an advantage today. Lars Nootbaar has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal mark of 93-mph.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Everson Pereira in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Everson Pereira will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Chandler Simpson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 5th-deepest CF fences today. Over the last 7 days, Chandler Simpson's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal EV of 80 mph to 64.5 mph. Chandler Simpson's launch angle in recent games (-3.5° over the past two weeks) is quite a bit worse than his 0.8° seasonal angle. This year, Chandler Simpson's 0% Barrel%, an advanced standard for measuring power, places him in the 0th percentile among his peers.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Batting from the opposite that Adrian Houser throws from, Nathan Church will have an advantage in today's game. Nathan Church has displayed some good exit velocity benchmarks recently, averaging 96.4-mph on his flyballs in the past week's worth of games.

Alec Burleson's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Adrian Houser in today's game. Alec Burleson has been hot in recent games, compiling a 93-mph average exit velocity in the last week's worth of games.

Hitting from the same side that Miles Mikolas throws from, Junior Caminero will have a disadvantage in today's game. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 7th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. In the past 14 days, Junior Caminero's 20% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 36.7%. Junior Caminero has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .346 rate is inflated compared to his .316 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Sporting a 3.65 K/BB rate this year, Junior Caminero has shown bad plate discipline, grading out in the 22nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 79th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Masyn Winn is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. In the past week, Masyn Winn's 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Thomas Saggese has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Thomas Saggese has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 5.9% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the past 7 days. Thomas Saggese has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 90.7-mph average.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Robert Seymour will hold the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas in today's matchup. Robert Seymour will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Posting a 93.6-mph average exit velocity over the last week, Robert Seymour has been in great form lately. In the last 7 days, Robert Seymour's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 25% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Ivan Herrera is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Ivan Herrera has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Ivan Herrera has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last year's 91.5-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Willson Contreras's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, increasing from 48% on the season to 58.3% over the last 14 days. Willson Contreras has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .343 figure is deflated compared to his .372 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hitting from the same side that Miles Mikolas throws from, Yandy Diaz meets a tough challenge in today's matchup. Yandy Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 94-mph seasonal average has dropped to 84.5-mph over the past 7 days.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Pedro Pages has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences today. Pedro Pages has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 93-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Pedro Pages's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 16% on the season to 26.3% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Williams in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-hottest weather of the day at 84°. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the weakest out of all the teams today. Carson Williams will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Brandon Lowe is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Jake Mangum is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Jake Mangum will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last two weeks, Jake Mangum's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.4-mph over the course of the season to 95.5-mph lately.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the hottest weather of the day at 84°. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Hunter Feduccia will have an advantage in today's game. Hunter Feduccia will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast expects the 2nd-hottest weather of the day at 84°. Tristan Gray will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Miles Mikolas in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense profiles as the weakest out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Tristan Gray will hold that advantage in today's game.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.