Miami @ Boston picks
Fenway Park
MIA vs BOS Picks
MLB Picks
Total RBIs

Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his home run talent, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Kyle Stowers will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Jakob Marsee o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Jakob Marsee has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. Jakob Marsee will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split.. Jakob Marsee has been hot recently, putting up a a 20% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) in the last week.
Total RBIs

Romy Gonzalez o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 14th-best hitter in baseball when assessing his BABIP skill.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Romy Gonzalez will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.. Romy Gonzalez has averaged 24.9 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 84th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total RBIs

Roman Anthony o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Roman Anthony's BABIP talent is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Batting from the opposite that Cal Quantrill throws from, Roman Anthony will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Roman Anthony is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.
Total RBIs

Alex Bregman o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.2% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Alex Bregman will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs

Jarren Duran o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Jarren Duran's BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jarren Duran is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Batting from the opposite that Cal Quantrill throws from, Jarren Duran will have an edge today.. Jarren Duran is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Graham Pauley o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-160)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The #3 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. Graham Pauley will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split.. In the past week, Graham Pauley's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.6% up to 14.3%.. Graham Pauley's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 45.3% on the season to 71.4% in the last week's worth of games.
Total Bases

Kyle Stowers o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his home run talent, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Kyle Stowers will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
Total Bases

Carlos Narvaez u1.5 Total Bases (-195)
Projection 0.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Carlos Narvaez is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today's game.. Fenway Park has the 2nd-highest average fence height in the league.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Cal Quantrill will hold the platoon advantage over Carlos Narvaez in today's game.. Carlos Narvaez has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .318 rate is considerably higher than his .289 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Kyle Stowers o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-140)
Projection 2.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his home run talent, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #3 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest.. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Kyle Stowers will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.