Miami @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Brayan Bello will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Agustin Ramirez in today's matchup... and it's an even bigger mismatch considering Bello's large platoon split. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams playing today. Agustin Ramirez will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Masataka Yoshida has been pulled from the game early 15% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Masataka Yoshida has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.3-mph dropping to 84.5-mph in the last 7 days. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle this season (5°) is a significant dropoff from his 10.5° figure last season.

The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. Graham Pauley will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split. In the past week, Graham Pauley's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.6% up to 14.3%. Graham Pauley's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 45.3% on the season to 71.4% in the last week's worth of games.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. Cal Quantrill will have the handedness advantage against Alex Bregman today. Alex Bregman has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .299 figure is considerably higher than his .235 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The #4 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 2nd-shallowest left field fences in the majors are found in Fenway Park. Connor Wong will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Connor Wong has been unlucky this year, putting up a .211 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .296 — a .085 deviation. Connor Wong has recorded a .317 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 83rd percentile.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. In the last week's worth of games, Jarren Duran's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.2% down to 0%. Jarren Duran's exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 92.8-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 88.6-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. In the last 14 days, Jarren Duran's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (-1.1°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 6.1°.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup. The Boston Red Sox infield defense profiles as the strongest out of all the teams playing today. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Xavier Edwards in today's matchup. Xavier Edwards's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (5.4°) is quite a bit lower than his 10.8° angle last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill in the 97th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. The #4 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 2nd-shallowest left field fences in the majors are found in Fenway Park. This season, Derek Hill has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.4 mph compared to last year's 93.1 mph mark. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.263) provides evidence that Derek Hill has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .229 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Kyle Stowers will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.

Roman Anthony's BABIP talent is projected in the 94th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Roman Anthony is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Batting from the opposite that Cal Quantrill throws from, Roman Anthony will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Roman Anthony is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez as the 14th-best hitter in baseball when assessing his BABIP skill. The #4 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Romy Gonzalez has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Romy Gonzalez will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Ranking in the 94th percentile, Romy Gonzalez has put up a .367 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. Troy Johnston will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Trevor Story is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. The #4 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Trevor Story has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Trevor Story will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Jakob Marsee has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. Jakob Marsee will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Jakob Marsee has been hot recently, putting up a a 20% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) in the last week.

Liam Hicks is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Liam Hicks will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Liam Hicks has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Liam Hicks's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, rising from 47.9% on the season to 60% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. The #4 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Ceddanne Rafaela hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Ceddanne Rafaela will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the past 14 days, Ceddanne Rafaela has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 22.9° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.5°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Otto Lopez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game. The #4 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Otto Lopez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. There has been a significant improvement in Otto Lopez's launch angle from last season's 5.4° to 8.8° this season.

The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's right field dimensions are the 3rd-shallowest. Abraham Toro will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Abraham Toro has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph to 93.7-mph over the last 7 days. Abraham Toro has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91.6-mph average to last year's 89-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Wilyer Abreu will have the handedness advantage against Cal Quantrill today. Wilyer Abreu has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP. Wilyer Abreu pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

The #4 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The 2nd-shallowest left field fences in the majors are found in Fenway Park. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Carlos Narvaez will hold that advantage in today's game. This year, Carlos Narvaez has an average exit velocity of 91.4 mph, which ranks among the best in the game at the 83rd percentile.

The #4 park in the league for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Heriberto Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's shallowest LF fences today. Heriberto Hernandez has put up a .352 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 88th percentile. Sporting a .282 batting average this year, Heriberto Hernandez finds himself in the 89th percentile.