Philadelphia @ Cincinnati picks

Between the pitch count, a very hitter-friendly umpire behind the plate, and the ball jumping off the bat in a hitters’ park, I’ll take the Under 6.5 Ks in Greene’s first start since June 3.

Carlos Torres profiles as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is likely to be umping in today's game.. This contest is predicted to have the 15th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. With 8 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Cristopher Sanchez meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.. Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Cristopher Sanchez in today's game.. With a 0.26 discrepancy between Cristopher Sanchez's 9.39 K/9 and his 9.13 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and should perform worse going forward.

Edmundo Sosa's BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best venue in the majors for RHB home runs.. Great American Ball Park has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB.. This contest is predicted to have the 15th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Edmundo Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, going from 12.3% on the season to 30% in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 80th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best venue in the majors for RHB home runs.. Great American Ball Park has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB.. This contest is predicted to have the 15th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Noelvi Marte will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball when estimating his BABIP talent.. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best venue in the majors for RHB home runs.. This contest is predicted to have the 15th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Elly De La Cruz has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Nick Castellanos is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best venue in the majors for RHB home runs.. Great American Ball Park has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB.. This contest is predicted to have the 15th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best venue in the majors for RHB home runs.. This contest is predicted to have the 15th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Harrison Bader pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Harrison Bader's launch angle lately (23.8° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is considerably higher than his 12.6° seasonal figure.. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Harrison Bader ranks in the 80th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 26.000.

J.T. Realmuto's BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. J.T. Realmuto is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best venue in the majors for RHB home runs.. This contest is predicted to have the 15th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. J.T. Realmuto has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best venue in the majors for RHB home runs.. This contest is predicted to have the 15th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Matt McLain will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's game.. Matt McLain has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best stadium in the majors for left-handed home runs.. This contest is predicted to have the 15th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Greene throws from, Max Kepler will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Max Kepler pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Max Kepler has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 12.1% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the past week.

Austin Hays is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 2nd-best venue in the majors for RHB home runs.. This contest is predicted to have the 15th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Austin Hays will hold the platoon advantage over Cristopher Sanchez in today's game.. Austin Hays pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.