Philadelphia @ Texas picks

The Phillies swept the Rangers in Philadelphia last season and are on their way to doing it again, but this time in Texas. A 9-1 victory on Friday night set the tone, yet the Phillies are underdogs on Saturday night. It does make some sense as the Rangers are starting Jacob deGrom (10-4, 2.80 ERA) against Jesus Luzardo (10-5, 4.32 ERA) for the Phillies. However, deGrom has allowed five runs in each of his last two outings, and the Rangers are 1-4 in his previous five starts. Meanwhile, Luzardo has allowed a total of three runs on seven hits across 13 innings in his last two starts. On top of that, the Rangers have struggled mightily against left-handed starters this season, going 10-20 vs. LHP and 50-37 vs. RHP. On the flip side, the Phillies are 53-29 vs. RHP (13-20 vs. LHP). Take advantage of the Phillies at this underdog price on Saturday night in Texas.

Kyle Schwarber produced the goods and went deep on Friday, so why not ride the wave? The Philadelphia Phillies slugger now has 41 bombs on the year and continues to be in the race for the MLB lead, sitting just below Cal Raleigh.

The veteran has three long balls in his last four games and has already left the yard four times in August. He has a very tough matchup tonight against Texas Rangers starter Jacob deGrom, but as we know, Schwarber can take the best of the best deep.

He’s only 2-for-16 lifetime against deGrom, but one of those hits was a round-tripper. Also, deGrom, while dominant, has been prone to the long ball in ‘25, giving up 19 in 22 starts. Left-handed hitters have taken him deep 12 times.

Globe Life Field has the 7th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Jacob deGrom throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge today.. Max Kepler has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 12% seasonal rate to 17.6% over the past two weeks.. Max Kepler has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.9-mph EV.. Max Kepler's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, going from 17.9% on the season to 40% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Adolis Garcia will have the handedness advantage over Jesus Luzardo in today's game... and even more favorably, Luzardo has a large platoon split.. Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Adolis Garcia will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcus Semien in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Marcus Semien is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Considering Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Marcus Semien will have a gigantic advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best batter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Batting from the opposite that Jacob deGrom throws from, Bryce Harper will have an advantage today.. Bryce Harper has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.2-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal EV of 94.2-mph.

Corey Seager projects as the 7th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Out of every team on the slate today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Corey Seager will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob deGrom to throw 85 pitches in this game (15th-most of all pitchers on the slate), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Globe Life Field grades out as the #5 park in the game for walks, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Globe Life Field has the 7th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Considering the 0.95 deviation between Jacob deGrom's 2.80 ERA and his 3.74 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year and should see worse results in future games.. Jacob deGrom has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game on balls in play this year with a .238 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.

Globe Life Field has the 7th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Jacob deGrom throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge today.. Max Kepler has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 12% seasonal rate to 17.6% over the past two weeks.. Max Kepler has seen a big gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 90.9-mph EV.. Max Kepler's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, going from 17.9% on the season to 40% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 85th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Batting from the opposite that Jacob deGrom throws from, Bryson Stott will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Bryson Stott has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 91.2-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal figure of 88.8-mph.. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.5°, Bryson Stott has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 46.5° figure in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edmundo Sosa in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. In the past week, Edmundo Sosa's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.3-mph over the course of the season to 107.9-mph in recent games.. Edmundo Sosa has notched a .336 BABIP this year, placing in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Globe Life Field has the 7th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Otto Kemp's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, rising from 20.7% on the season to 42.1% over the past two weeks.. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Otto Kemp has experienced some negative variance this year. His .302 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .331.