Houston @ Miami picks

THE BAT has this ML fair price at -156 and the projections don't really like the Astros -- ever. Yes, the Marlins are playing well of late but this is a roster void of talent and is playing above expections since the break. Even with the Astros likely going full bullpen, I'm happy to be on the visitors here at a near-coinflip. Quantrill can certainly have some blowups.

This is simply a massive price for a prop with better than 50% hit probability — THE BAT projects 3.71 strikeouts. Cal Quantrill may have been on a short leash recently, possibly due to trade value concerns, but he's not showing signs of being pushed on innings either (148 IP last year, sitting at 97 now). He’s recorded 46 strikeouts over his last 53 innings and has hit 5+ Ks in 8 of 21 starts, so there’s clear ceiling here.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Steven Okert throws from, Kyle Stowers will have an edge in today's game.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Stowers will hold that advantage today.. Kyle Stowers has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 11% rate last season to 20.2% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 81st percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Heriberto Hernandez will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.. In the past 14 days, Heriberto Hernandez's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.7-mph over the course of the season to 99.3-mph of late.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Cal Quantrill throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an edge in today's matchup.. Jesus Sanchez has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.7-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.2-mph EV.. As it relates to his home runs, Jesus Sanchez has experienced some negative variance this year. His 17.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.7.

Yainer Diaz's batting average ability is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Yainer Diaz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Over the last 7 days, Yainer Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.2% up to 16.7%.. Over the past 7 days, Yainer Diaz's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 95.2-mph lately.. Yainer Diaz has been unlucky this year, notching a .302 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .028 deviation.

Otto Lopez's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Otto Lopez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Otto Lopez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Otto Lopez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Steven Okert.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Otto Lopez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Eric Wagaman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Eric Wagaman will hold that advantage today.. In the past week's worth of games, Eric Wagaman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.4% up to 11.1%.. In the last two weeks, Eric Wagaman's 21.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15%.. Eric Wagaman has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 7.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount lower than his 14.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his batting average talent, Jeremy Pena is projected as the 17th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jeremy Pena is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.. The 6th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park.. Jeremy Pena has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 90.4-mph average in the past week's worth of games to his seasonal 88.1-mph figure.. Over the last week, Jeremy Pena's 71.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.4%.

Carlos Correa's batting average skill is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Carlos Correa is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. The 6th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park.. Carlos Correa has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 7% seasonal rate to 27.3% in the past week.. Carlos Correa has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 107.4-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal average of 92.5-mph.

As it relates to his home run skill, Agustin Ramirez ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Agustin Ramirez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The 6th-shallowest CF dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Agustin Ramirez will hold that advantage today.. Agustin Ramirez has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 12.4% seasonal rate to 20% over the last two weeks.

Victor Caratini hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Grading out in the 78th percentile, Victor Caratini sits with a .272 batting average this year.