Miami @ St. Louis Picks & Props

13% of the time that Jesus Sanchez has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter. Jesus Sanchez has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. St. Louis's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Jesus Sanchez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jesus Sanchez today.

Xavier Edwards has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-deepest LF fences today. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Xavier Edwards will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. Xavier Edwards's launch angle of late (3.5° over the past week) is quite a bit worse than his 8.7° seasonal angle. Last season, Xavier Edwards had a launch angle of 10.8° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this year he experienced a significant decline to just 6.1°.

Miles Mikolas will hold the platoon advantage over Otto Lopez today. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Otto Lopez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. In the past week, Otto Lopez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%. In the last week, Otto Lopez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal figure of 92.2 mph to 77.4 mph.

Batting from the same side that Cal Quantrill throws from, Ivan Herrera has a tough challenge in today's game. Ivan Herrera has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Over the past two weeks, Ivan Herrera's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (0.5°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 8.9°. Ivan Herrera's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 16.3% to 9.7%. Ivan Herrera has been lucky this year, notching a .378 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .047 disparity.

In today's matchup, Brendan Donovan is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35% rate (85th percentile). Brendan Donovan has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 8.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 2.6% in the past two weeks. Compared to his seasonal mark of 11.1°, Brendan Donovan has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (0.1°) over the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jordan Walker has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 95.5-mph in the past 7 days.

Miles Mikolas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Agustin Ramirez in today's game. Agustin Ramirez has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences today. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-best infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Agustin Ramirez will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Agustin Ramirez has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph dropping to 85.8-mph in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Thomas Saggese will hold that advantage in today's game. Thomas Saggese's footspeed has gotten better this year. His 27.86 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.49 ft/sec now. Thomas Saggese is in the 98th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (27.5% rate since the start of last season).

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Batting from the opposite that Cal Quantrill throws from, Victor Scott II will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage today.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Graham Pauley will have an advantage in today's matchup.

Dane Myers's BABIP skill is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. In the past week, Dane Myers's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.2% up to 22.2%. Over the past 7 days, Dane Myers's 44.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.3%.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Liam Hicks will have the handedness advantage against Miles Mikolas in today's game. Liam Hicks has displayed good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 88th percentile with a 1.46 K/BB rate.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. In the last week, Heriberto Hernandez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.9% up to 25%. Heriberto Hernandez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 99.3-mph average in the last week to his seasonal mark of 95.7-mph.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. Nolan Arenado has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 93.8-mph average in the last week to his seasonal mark of 89.7-mph. Despite posting a .287 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nolan Arenado has experienced some negative variance given the .017 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .304.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Batting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Kyle Stowers will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Kyle Stowers has made significant strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 11% rate last season to 20.3% this season.

Masyn Winn's batting average skill is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masyn Winn is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's game. Willson Contreras has made notable gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 15% seasonal rate to 24% over the last 14 days.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Yohel Pozo will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Pedro Pages will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Pedro Pages has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 7.2% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the past week's worth of games. Pedro Pages's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 14.1% on the season to 28.6% in the last 7 days. Pedro Pages has been unlucky this year, compiling a .244 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .278 — a .034 difference.

Alec Burleson's batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alec Burleson is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cal Quantrill in today's matchup. Alec Burleson hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report projects for the 4th-best hitting conditions on the slate. Hitting from the opposite that Miles Mikolas throws from, Troy Johnston will have an advantage in today's matchup.

Eric Wagaman has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.