Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati Picks & Props

Brady Singer will have the handedness advantage over Yandy Diaz in today's matchup... and it's a particular mismatch considering Singer's large platoon split. Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Yandy Diaz's true offensive skill to be a .360, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .010 disparity between that mark and his actual .350 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Jake Fraley will have an edge in today's game. Jake Fraley pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Jake Fraley will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. With a .334 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Jake Fraley is ranked in the 79th percentile for offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest right field dimensions in the majors. Because of Brady Singer's large platoon split, Matt Thaiss will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today. Matt Thaiss has displayed impressive plate discipline this year, placing in the 88th percentile with a 1.54 K/BB rate.

Jake Mangum is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today's game. Jake Mangum will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Jake Mangum has been lucky this year, compiling a .317 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .286 — a .031 disparity. Jake Mangum's 4% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) ranks in the 13th percentile this year. Grading out in the 14th percentile, the hardest ball Jake Mangum has connected with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 108.3 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #8 park in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Junior Caminero pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Junior Caminero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 31.5% to 38.1%.

Great American Ball Park profiles as the #8 park in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. This season, Danny Jansen has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 93.9 mph compared to last year's 90.5 mph mark. There has been a significant improvement in Danny Jansen's launch angle from last year's 21.6° to 24.9° this year.

Great American Ball Park profiles as the #8 park in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Caballero has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 85.8-mph average to last season's 83.5-mph EV. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 43.9% to 51.7%. Ranking in the 84th percentile, Jose Caballero has notched a .330 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. Taylor Walls has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Compared to last season, Taylor Walls has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.8% to 19.8% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his BABIP talent. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Elly De La Cruz will get to bat from his better side against Shane Baz in today's matchup. Elly De La Cruz has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #8 park in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Tyler Stephenson has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Tyler Stephenson will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Tyler Stephenson's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 43.3% to 50.4%.

Chandler Simpson will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Chandler Simpson's true offensive ability to be a .295, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .014 difference between that figure and his actual .309 wOBA. Chandler Simpson's 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) grades out in the 0th percentile this year. Ranked in the 1st percentile, Chandler Simpson's average exit velocity of 83.8 mph ranks among the lowest in Major League Baseball this year. Chandler Simpson and his -1.7° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 0th percentile, among the lowest in baseball this year.

Austin Hays is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #8 park in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Austin Hays pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Austin Hays will hold that advantage in today's game. Austin Hays has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.8% rate last year to 13.6% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Matt McLain is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #8 park in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Matt McLain has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Matt McLain will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

TJ Friedl is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, TJ Friedl will have an advantage today. TJ Friedl pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. TJ Friedl will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Gavin Lux's BABIP ability is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gavin Lux is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest right field dimensions in the majors. Gavin Lux will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane Baz in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 77th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Great American Ball Park profiles as the #8 park in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Great American Ball Park has the 7th-shallowest LF dimensions in the majors. Noelvi Marte will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Noelvi Marte's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 90.2-mph now compared to just 87-mph then.

Great American Ball Park profiles as the #8 park in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Santiago Espinal has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences today. Santiago Espinal will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Posting a 1.69 K/BB rate this year, Santiago Espinal has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, ranking in the 80th percentile.

Great American Ball Park profiles as the #8 park in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Jose Trevino pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jose Trevino will hold that advantage in today's game.

Great American Ball Park profiles as the #8 park in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Spencer Steer will hold that advantage today. Last year, Spencer Steer had an average launch angle of 11.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 15.8°.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 8th-best field in MLB for LHB batting average. Given Brady Singer's large platoon split, Jonathan Aranda will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today. Jonathan Aranda pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.