Miami @ Arizona picks
Chase Field
MIA vs AZ Picks
MLB Picks
Game Prop
Pick made: 21 days ago

Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst
The Diamondbacks are third in the majors in OPS (.788) and second in run first inning percentage (35.8%). Meanwhile, the Marlins are ninth in the majors in OPS on the road (.730). Both teams also have struggling starters. Miami's Sandy Alcantara has a 6.69 ERA with a 1.46 WHIP through 15 starts while Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt has a 5.69 ERA. Pfaadt has been even worse in the first inning where he has pitched to a 7.80 ERA with an OBA of .338.
Total RBIs

Connor Norby o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Chase Field ranks as the #2 venue in the league for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the last 14 days, Connor Norby's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48%.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.5) suggests that Connor Norby has had some very poor luck this year with his 10.6 actual HR/600.. Connor Norby has compiled a .337 BABIP this year, placing in the 86th percentile.
Total RBIs

Jesus Sanchez o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The #2 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball bats like Jesus Sanchez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.
Total RBIs

Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his home run skill, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Stowers is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.. The #2 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Kyle Stowers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Kyle Stowers has made notable gains with his Barrel%, improving his 11% rate last year to 18.9% this year.
Total RBIs

Randal Grichuk o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his home run talent, Randal Grichuk ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Chase Field ranks as the #2 venue in the league for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Randal Grichuk will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.. Randal Grichuk has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 96.6-mph in the last week's worth of games.. When it comes to his home runs, Randal Grichuk has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His 21.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 30.8.
Total RBIs

Eric Wagaman o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Chase Field ranks as the #2 venue in the league for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. In terms of his home runs, Eric Wagaman has experienced some negative variance this year. His 9.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 15.0.
Total RBIs

Ketel Marte o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 11th-best hitter in MLB.. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The #2 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. Ketel Marte will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.
Total RBIs

Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Eugenio Suarez projects as the 16th-best home run batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Chase Field ranks as the #2 venue in the league for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Extreme groundball batters like Eugenio Suarez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sandy Alcantara.. Eugenio Suarez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Total Bases

Jesus Sanchez o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The #2 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball bats like Jesus Sanchez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jesus Sanchez o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-140)
Projection 2.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. The #2 ballpark in the majors for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball bats like Jesus Sanchez generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.
Total Bases

Connor Norby o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 97th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Chase Field ranks as the #2 venue in the league for right-handed batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the last 14 days, Connor Norby's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48%.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.5) suggests that Connor Norby has had some very poor luck this year with his 10.6 actual HR/600.. Connor Norby has compiled a .337 BABIP this year, placing in the 86th percentile.