Philadelphia @ Houston picks

Hunter Brown has allowed fewer than 1.5 earned runs in 10 of his last 13 starts. He leads the majors with a 1.88 ERA and ranks fifth in WHIP (0.92) through 15 starts. He's in the Top 10th percentile in strikeout rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. The Phillies have a .782 OPS at home but that number plummets to .683 on the road. They've also struggled to hit this month with their best slugger Bryce Harper sidelined by a wrist injury.

Max Kepler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge today.. Max Kepler has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 94.2-mph in the last 14 days.. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.9°, Max Kepler has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 21.5° mark in the past two weeks' worth of games.. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Max Kepler has been unlucky this year. His .303 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .335.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. The shallowest left field dimensions in the league are found in Minute Maid Park.. Nick Castellanos has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 9.3% seasonal rate to 22.6% in the past two weeks.. Over the last two weeks, Nick Castellanos's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.6-mph over the course of the season to 99.9-mph recently.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Isaac Paredes will have the handedness advantage against Cristopher Sanchez in today's matchup.. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.9% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Isaac Paredes are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst out of every team today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Alec Bohm has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Alec Bohm has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 96.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal mark of 93.2-mph.. Using Statcast metrics, Alec Bohm is in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .291.. Grading out in the 85th percentile, Alec Bohm has posted a .285 batting average this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Jose Altuve will have the upper hand today.. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst out of every team today.

When it comes to his home run ability, Christian Walker ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Christian Walker will have an advantage today.. Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst out of every team today.. Christian Walker will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Jake Meyers's batting average talent is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.. Batting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Jake Meyers will have an edge in today's game.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense projects as the worst out of every team today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the league's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Kyle Schwarber will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown today.. Kyle Schwarber has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 94.2-mph mark.. Kyle Schwarber's launch angle this season (19.6°) is a significant increase over his 14.9° angle last season.

The Philadelphia Phillies projected offense ranks as the 5th-strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yainer Diaz (the Astros's expected catcher today) is considered to be a weak pitch framer.. The shallowest left field dimensions in the league are found in Minute Maid Park.. Hunter Brown's higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (60.2 compared to 53% last year) is not ideal considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.. Considering the 1.64 disparity between Hunter Brown's 1.88 ERA and his 3.52 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year and ought to perform worse in future games.

Max Kepler is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge today.. Max Kepler has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.3-mph to 94.2-mph in the last 14 days.. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.9°, Max Kepler has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 21.5° mark in the past two weeks' worth of games.. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Max Kepler has been unlucky this year. His .303 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .335.