Cincinnati @ St. Louis picks
Busch Stadium
CIN vs STL Picks
MLB Picks
MoneyLine

Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Miles Mikolas is mired in another disappointing season. The Cardinals’ righty owns an ERA north of 4.00 and will be vulnerable against a Reds lineup that boasts a .854 OPS against him. Meanwhile, Andrew Abbott is off to a 6–1 start with a 1.84 ERA, so back Cincinnati to win this NL Central clash.
Total RBIs

Matt McLain o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Matt McLain is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. In the majors, Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 94°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.
Total RBIs

Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. In the majors, Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 94°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.
Total RBIs

Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. In the majors, Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 94°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.. Jordan Walker will hold the platoon advantage over Andrew Abbott today.
Total RBIs

Tyler Stephenson o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Tyler Stephenson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. In the majors, Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 94°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.
Total RBIs

Gavin Lux o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Gavin Lux is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.. In the majors, Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 94°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.
Total RBIs

Willson Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. In the majors, Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 94°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.
Outs Recorded

Andrew Abbott u17.5 Outs Recorded (+105)
Projection 16 (Under)
EV Model Rating
It is likely that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Scott Barry) calling pitches today.. In the majors, Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 94°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.. With 7 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Andrew Abbott will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Victor Scott II o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-161)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
In the majors, Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 94°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.. Among every team today, the worst infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Victor Scott II will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.
Total Bases

Pedro Pages u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Pedro Pages ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Pedro Pages is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.. Busch Stadium ranks as the #23 venue in the league for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Pedro Pages has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and will be challenged by the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences today.. In the last 14 days, Pedro Pages's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal mark of 88 mph to 82 mph.
Outs Recorded

Miles Mikolas u16.5 Outs Recorded (-110)
Projection 15.1 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Miles Mikolas is projected to throw 82 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least of the day.. It is likely that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Scott Barry) calling pitches today.. In the majors, Busch Stadium has the 10th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 94°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this match-up, the 5th-strongest of the day for hitters.