Cincinnati @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Long-balls are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest in the majors. Batting from the opposite that Brent Suter throws from, Masyn Winn will have an edge in today's matchup. Masyn Winn has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 5.9% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 89.9-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 83.6-mph in the past 7 days. Masyn Winn's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, decreasing from 14.6% on the season to 0% in the past 7 days.

Alec Burleson's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 92.9-mph average last year has fallen to 90.5-mph. Over the last 14 days, Alec Burleson's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 90.5 mph to 87.1 mph. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.253) implies that Alec Burleson has been very fortunate this year with his .313 actual batting average.

Brendan Donovan has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup. Despite posting a .359 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brendan Donovan has had positive variance on his side given the .024 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .335.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best batter in baseball when estimating his BABIP ability. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Sonny Gray today.

TJ Friedl is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. TJ Friedl will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today's matchup. Over the past two weeks, TJ Friedl has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 21.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 9.6°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Jordan Walker will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Jake Fraley will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today's matchup. With a 2.1 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Jake Fraley has displayed favorable plate discipline, checking in at the 75th percentile. With a .264 batting average since the start of last season, Jake Fraley grades out in the 78th percentile.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Brent Suter will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Victor Scott II today. Victor Scott II will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. In the past week, Victor Scott II's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.4% up to 16.7%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Hitting from the same side that Brent Suter throws from, Lars Nootbaar will not have the upper hand in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand's batting average talent is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 9.7% seasonal rate to 17.9% over the last two weeks.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Pedro Pages will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Spencer Steer is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Over the past 7 days, Spencer Steer's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.9% up to 15.4%. In the last week, Spencer Steer's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.7-mph over the course of the season to 95.7-mph lately.

Gavin Lux's BABIP skill is projected in the 85th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Gavin Lux is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Gavin Lux will hold the platoon advantage over Sonny Gray in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Matt McLain's 52% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.3%.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Brent Suter will have the handedness advantage over Nolan Gorman in today's game. Nolan Gorman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Over the last 14 days, Nolan Gorman has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 10.5% to 15.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 77th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.2°, Santiago Espinal has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 25.1° mark over the last two weeks. Santiago Espinal has shown impressive plate discipline this year, ranking in the 88th percentile with a 1.43 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 89th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Tyler Stephenson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. This season, Tyler Stephenson has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.3 mph compared to last year's 93.8 mph mark.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today's game. When it comes to plate discipline, Nolan Arenado's skill is quite impressive, posting a 1.48 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 87th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

The weather forecast expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 94°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.7-mph in this contest, the 3rd-best of the day for bats. Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Will Benson will have an advantage in today's matchup. Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Will Benson has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 101.5-mph in the past 7 days.