Cincinnati @ St. Louis Picks & Props

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Jake Fraley will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante in today's matchup. As it relates to plate discipline, Jake Fraley's skill is quite strong, sporting a 2.1 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 75th percentile. Jake Fraley has put up a .264 batting average since the start of last season, checking in at the 78th percentile.

Alec Burleson's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 92.9-mph mark last season has decreased to 90.5-mph. Alec Burleson's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 90.5-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 87.1-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. In terms of his batting average, Alec Burleson has been very fortunate this year. His .313 BA has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .253.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 87th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Gavin Lux is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Batting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Gavin Lux will have an advantage in today's game. Gavin Lux hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Victor Scott II will have the handedness advantage over Brady Singer today... and even better, Singer has a large platoon split. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Victor Scott II will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. Victor Scott II has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 4.4% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best batter in the league when estimating his BABIP talent. Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against Andre Pallante in today's game. Elly De La Cruz has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 14.5% seasonal rate to 23.5% in the past 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 9.7% seasonal rate to 17.9% over the past two weeks. In the past week's worth of games, Christian Encarnacion-Strand's 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.1%.

Brendan Donovan has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will be challenged by MLB's 8th-deepest LF fences today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brendan Donovan's true offensive skill to be a .335, indicating that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .024 difference between that mark and his actual .359 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Matt McLain hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Matt McLain's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better lately, rising from 44.3% on the season to 52% over the last 14 days. Despite posting a .278 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Matt McLain has suffered from bad luck given the .050 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .328.

Jordan Walker's BABIP skill is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Jordan Walker will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Spencer Steer is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Over the past 7 days, Spencer Steer's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.9% up to 15.4%. Spencer Steer has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 90.7-mph. Despite posting a .283 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Spencer Steer has had bad variance on his side given the .024 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.

Nolan Gorman is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Nolan Gorman will have the handedness advantage over Brady Singer in today's matchup... and the cherry on top, Singer has a large platoon split. Hitters such as Nolan Gorman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brady Singer who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Pedro Pages will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

TJ Friedl is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. TJ Friedl will hold the platoon advantage over Andre Pallante today. Over the past two weeks, TJ Friedl has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 21.1° compared to his seasonal mark of 9.6°. By putting up a 1.31 K/BB rate this year, TJ Friedl has shown strong plate discipline, ranking in the 92nd percentile.

Tyler Stephenson's BABIP talent is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Tyler Stephenson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. This season, Tyler Stephenson has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.3 mph compared to last year's 93.8 mph mark. Tyler Stephenson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 14% to 24.1%.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Batters such as Nolan Arenado with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brady Singer who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Nolan Arenado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Nolan Arenado has exhibited favorable plate discipline this year, checking in at the 87th percentile with a 1.48 K/BB rate.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Will Benson will have an edge in today's matchup. Will Benson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Will Benson has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.5-mph to 101.5-mph over the past week. Will Benson has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99-mph average to last year's 93.4-mph mark.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Considering Brady Singer's large platoon split, Lars Nootbaar will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Ivan Herrera has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 100.4-mph average to last season's 91.5-mph average. Sporting a .403 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Ivan Herrera is ranked in the 98th percentile. Ivan Herrera has put up a .364 BABIP since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Jose Trevino's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 35.3% to 40.3%. By putting up a 2.01 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Jose Trevino has shown good plate discipline, checking in at the 78th percentile. Jose Trevino has notched a .294 batting average this year, placing in the 91st percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 75th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Masyn Winn is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast projects the 2nd-hottest weather on the slate today at 90°. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the 5th-weakest among every team in action today. Masyn Winn will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.