Philadelphia @ Miami picks

We roll with the Over here with two pitchers who are well north of 4.20 with their ERA this season. The Phillies have one of the best offenses in the Majors, while Luzardo has been shelled over his last three starts, giving up 21 runs during that span. Expect offense here on Tuesday.

Max Kepler has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Hitting from the opposite that Cal Quantrill throws from, Max Kepler will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.. In the past week's worth of games, Max Kepler's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.1% up to 33.3%.. Max Kepler has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 91.2-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Otto Lopez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Otto Lopez will hold the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo in today's game... and moreover, Luzardo has a large platoon split.. Otto Lopez hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Extreme flyball batters like Otto Lopez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.

Agustin Ramirez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Agustin Ramirez will hold the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo today... and even better, Luzardo has a large platoon split.. Among every team today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Agustin Ramirez will hold that advantage in today's game.. Agustin Ramirez has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 94.3-mph.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Kyle Schwarber will hold the platoon advantage over Cal Quantrill in today's matchup.. Kyle Schwarber is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.. Kyle Schwarber has strong power (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cal Quantrill is a pitch-to-contact type (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. J.T. Realmuto is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. J.T. Realmuto's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, going from 44.7% on the season to 61.5% over the last 7 days.. J.T. Realmuto has been unlucky this year, posting a .300 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .332 — a .032 difference.

LoanDepot Park ranks as the #25 field in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which generally leads to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's game.. Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Kyle Schwarber in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Kepler in the 15th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. LoanDepot Park ranks as the #25 field in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which generally leads to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Max Kepler pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 84th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 4th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

Nick Fortes will have the handedness advantage against Jesus Luzardo today... and moreover, Luzardo has a large platoon split.. Among every team today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Nick Fortes will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Nick Fortes has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.7-mph average to last season's 84.1-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Among every team today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Kyle Stowers will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. The Barrel% of Kyle Stowers has significantly improved, with an increase from 11% last year to 18.9% this season.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (29.8) suggests that Kyle Stowers has been unlucky this year with his 23.3 actual HR/600.

The #5 venue in the game for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which generally leads to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Batting from the same side that Cal Quantrill throws from, J.T. Realmuto will have a tough challenge today.. Today, J.T. Realmuto is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.4% rate (81st percentile).