Chicago @ Houston Picks & Props

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Sean Burke will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Altuve in today's matchup. Over the last week, Jose Altuve's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.4% down to 0%. In the last week's worth of games, Jose Altuve's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 90.2 mph to 83.5 mph.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Sean Burke will hold the platoon advantage against Yainer Diaz today. In today's matchup, Yainer Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.4% rate (93rd percentile). Over the last 7 days, Yainer Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.5% down to 0%.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this contest -7° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching. Sean Burke will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeremy Pena today. Compared to his seasonal angle of 7.3°, Jeremy Pena has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-1.8°) over the past 14 days. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 12.3% to 8.6%.

Extreme groundball bats like Victor Caratini tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Sean Burke. Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Chicago White Sox. Victor Caratini will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Victor Caratini has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 93-mph in the past week. Victor Caratini's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 14.2% on the season to 50% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Vargas in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Miguel Vargas is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Miguel Vargas has made substantial strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 11.1% seasonal rate to 16.7% over the last 7 days. In the past 14 days, Miguel Vargas's 24.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.4%.

HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all stadiums. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Gusto throws from, Josh Rojas will have an edge today. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Josh Rojas's true offensive talent to be a .290, suggesting that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .078 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .212 wOBA.

Among all parks, Minute Maid Park's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Vinny Capra has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .121 figure is significantly deflated relative to his .226 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Vinny Capra is notably quick, ranking in the 80th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.38 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert Jr. in the 87th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Luis Robert Jr. is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. Among all parks, Minute Maid Park's LF fences are the 2nd-shallowest. Compared to his seasonal average of 20°, Luis Robert Jr. has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 30.5° mark over the past two weeks. Luis Robert Jr. has been unlucky this year, posting a .256 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .315 — a .059 difference.

Chase Meidroth's batting average talent is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Chase Meidroth is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Bats such as Chase Meidroth with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ryan Gusto who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Chase Meidroth's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, going from 46.1% on the season to 60% in the past week. With a 1.07 K/BB rate this year, Chase Meidroth has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, ranking in the 96th percentile.

Mike Tauchman is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Gusto throws from, Mike Tauchman will have the upper hand today. Mike Tauchman has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Mike Tauchman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 20.1% to 23.1%. Over the last week, Mike Tauchman's 41.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 23.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Chicago White Sox. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's game. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 44.4% to 51.5%. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, rising from 51.5% on the season to 61.3% in the past two weeks.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Chicago White Sox. Chicago's 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams today creates a favorable matchup for Isaac Paredes, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs. Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Christian Walker is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Christian Walker pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Chicago White Sox. Christian Walker will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Christian Walker has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 96-mph in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 85th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all stadiums. Batting from the opposite that Ryan Gusto throws from, Andrew Benintendi will have the upper hand in today's matchup. In the last 7 days, Andrew Benintendi's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 15% up to 22.2%.

HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all stadiums. Jacob Melton will have the handedness advantage against Sean Burke in today's matchup. Bats such as Jacob Melton with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Sean Burke who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Out of all the teams in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the Chicago White Sox. Jacob Melton will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Teel in the 84th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. HRs are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all stadiums. Kyle Teel will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Gusto in today's matchup. In the last week, Kyle Teel's swing has been well optimized for home runs, notching a 50% of balls hit with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

Joshua Palacios is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Joshua Palacios will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Gusto today. Joshua Palacios has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme groundball hitters like Joshua Palacios are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Gusto. Joshua Palacios's launch angle of late (23° over the last 14 days) is considerably higher than his 11.1° seasonal mark.