Chicago @ Houston Picks & Props

Josh Rojas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lance McCullers Jr. in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Josh Rojas's true offensive talent to be a .290, indicating that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .069 deviation between that figure and his actual .221 wOBA.

This game is projected to have the 4th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Hitting from the same side that Shane Smith throws from, Jeremy Pena will not have the upper hand in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Jeremy Pena tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane Smith. Jeremy Pena's launch angle of late (1.6° in the last 14 days) is considerably worse than his 7.3° seasonal angle. Jeremy Pena's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, going from 12.3% to 8.6%.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Miguel Vargas ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Miguel Vargas is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Extreme groundball hitters like Miguel Vargas usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr.. Over the last two weeks, Miguel Vargas's 24.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.4%. Miguel Vargas's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 33.6% to 40.6%.

Christian Walker is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game. Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. The Chicago White Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today's game. Christian Walker has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.2-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 90.9-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edgar Quero in the 78th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Edgar Quero is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. Edgar Quero has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew Benintendi in the 85th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Andrew Benintendi is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Andrew Benintendi will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lance McCullers Jr. today. Andrew Benintendi has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 15% seasonal rate to 20% in the last week. Andrew Benintendi's launch angle this season (23.2°) is a considerable increase over his 15.9° figure last season.

Hitting from the opposite that Shane Smith throws from, Jacob Melton will have an advantage today. The Chicago White Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jacob Melton will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jake Meyers's batting average skill is projected to be in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The Chicago White Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jake Meyers's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 44.4% to 51.5%. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jake Meyers's 60% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 51.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Teel in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Dingers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest in the majors. Kyle Teel will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lance McCullers Jr. today.

Yainer Diaz's batting average ability is projected to be in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The Chicago White Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Yainer Diaz will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Yainer Diaz has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.4-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 91.4-mph average.

Mike Tauchman is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game. Mike Tauchman will hold the platoon advantage over Lance McCullers Jr. in today's game. Mike Tauchman has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Mike Tauchman's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 20.1% to 23.1%. Placing in the 85th percentile, Mike Tauchman sits with a .343 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

The Chicago White Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage today. Last year, Victor Caratini had an average launch angle of 7.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 13.9°. Victor Caratini's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, rising from 14.2% on the season to 36.4% in the last week. Ranking in the 83rd percentile, Victor Caratini has posted a .270 batting average since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Robert Jr. in the 87th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Luis Robert Jr.'s launch angle lately (30.5° over the past 14 days) is considerably higher than his 20° seasonal figure. Luis Robert Jr. has been unlucky this year, notching a .246 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .314 — a .068 discrepancy.

Jose Altuve's batting average talent is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jose Altuve is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. The Chicago White Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage in today's game.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.8% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Batters such as Isaac Paredes with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Shane Smith who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. The Chicago White Sox infield defense grades out as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chase Meidroth in the 86th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Chase Meidroth is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. Chase Meidroth has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 90.8-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 88.5-mph mark. Chase Meidroth's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased in recent games, going from 46.1% on the season to 57.9% in the past week. When it comes to plate discipline, Chase Meidroth's talent is quite good, posting a 1.07 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 96th percentile.

Joshua Palacios is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game. Joshua Palacios will have the handedness advantage over Lance McCullers Jr. in today's matchup. Joshua Palacios has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.311) provides evidence that Joshua Palacios has experienced some negative variance this year with his .279 actual wOBA. In terms of plate discipline, Joshua Palacios's skill is quite impressive, posting a 2.06 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 80th percentile.