Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage today. Oneil Cruz has made notable strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 15.7% rate last year to 24.2% this year.

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today. Alec Bohm will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. Alec Bohm's launch angle this year (6.6°) is significantly worse than his 10° figure last year. Compared to his seasonal figure of 6.6°, Alec Bohm has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (0.9°) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Bryson Stott's launch angle recently (21.5° in the last 14 days) is significantly higher than his 16° seasonal mark. Bryson Stott's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 16.2% to 20.6%.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Henry Davis will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage today. Henry Davis has made substantial strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 7.8% seasonal rate to 20% over the last two weeks. In the past two weeks, Henry Davis's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.6-mph over the course of the season to 102.4-mph of late.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Andrew McCutchen is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Andrew McCutchen will have the upper hand in today's game. Andrew McCutchen will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Kyle Schwarber projects as the 18th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Kyle Schwarber's launch angle this season (19°) is quite a bit better than his 14.9° mark last year. Posting a .399 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Kyle Schwarber finds himself in the 96th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Bryan Reynolds will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Bryan Reynolds has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the past two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91.2-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. J.T. Realmuto will have the handedness advantage over Andrew Heaney today. Despite posting a .288 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes J.T. Realmuto has had some very poor luck given the .044 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today. Nick Castellanos will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Nick Castellanos has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph dropping to 82.6-mph in the past week's worth of games. Nick Castellanos's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined in recent games, going from 51.2% on the season to 23.1% in the past week's worth of games.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Johan Rojas will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Heaney in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Johan Rojas tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Andrew Heaney. Johan Rojas's launch angle this season (10.7°) is considerably higher than his 4.5° angle last year.

The Pittsburgh Pirates infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest among every team playing today. Trea Turner will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. When it comes to his batting average, Trea Turner has been very fortunate this year. His .306 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .265.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Tommy Pham will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Tommy Pham will hold that advantage in today's game. Tommy Pham has been unlucky this year, compiling a .238 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .304 — a .066 deviation.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Ke'Bryan Hayes will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Ke'Bryan Hayes will hold that advantage in today's game. Ke'Bryan Hayes has been unlucky this year, putting up a .254 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .298 — a .044 deviation.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa's batting average skill is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Isiah Kiner-Falefa will hold the platoon advantage over Ranger Suarez today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa will hold that advantage in today's game. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 93.8-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal average of 88.7-mph.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Heaney throws from, Weston Wilson will have the upper hand in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.353) provides evidence that Weston Wilson has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .332 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edmundo Sosa in the 76th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Batting from the opposite that Andrew Heaney throws from, Edmundo Sosa will have the upper hand today. Edmundo Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 8.7% on the season to 20% over the last two weeks. Edmundo Sosa's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 39.5% to 53.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 78th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Hitting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Jared Triolo will have an edge today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jared Triolo will hold that advantage today. In terms of his batting average, Jared Triolo has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .208 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .234.

Alexander Canario has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast projects the 4th-hottest weather of the day at 81°. Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Alexander Canario will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Alexander Canario will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.318) may lead us to conclude that Alexander Canario has suffered from bad luck this year with his .277 actual wOBA.