Miami @ Tampa Bay picks
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Robert Criscola
Publishing Editor
Total RBIs

Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+270)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 5th-best of the day for hitters.. Heriberto Hernandez has strong power (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (32% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Zack Littell struggles to strike batters out (5th percentile K%) — great news for Hernandez.
Total RBIs

Connor Norby o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 98th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 5th-best of the day for hitters.. Connor Norby has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 11.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly deflated relative to his 18.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Grading out in the 85th percentile, Connor Norby has posted a .328 BABIP since the start of last season.
Total RBIs

Junior Caminero o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Junior Caminero's batting average ability is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 5th-best of the day for hitters.. Junior Caminero will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.
Total RBIs

Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Kyle Stowers is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 5th-best of the day for hitters.. Kyle Stowers will hold the platoon advantage over Zack Littell today.
Total RBIs

Eric Wagaman o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 5th-best of the day for hitters.. Eric Wagaman has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 10.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 16.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total RBIs

Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 5th-best of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Edward Cabrera throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Jesus Sanchez o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 5th-best of the day for hitters.. Jesus Sanchez will have the handedness advantage over Zack Littell today.
Total Bases

Eric Wagaman o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 5th-best of the day for hitters.. Eric Wagaman has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 10.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 16.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Heriberto Hernandez o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-185)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 5th-best of the day for hitters.. Heriberto Hernandez has strong power (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (32% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Zack Littell struggles to strike batters out (5th percentile K%) — great news for Hernandez.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Danny Jansen o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-185)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the hottest temperature on the schedule today at 89°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 5th-best of the day for hitters.. Extreme flyball hitters like Danny Jansen generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Edward Cabrera.. Danny Jansen will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.. Danny Jansen has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.6-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal mark of 94.4-mph.