Texas @ Tampa Bay picks
George M. Steinbrenner Field
TEX vs TB Picks
MLB Picks
Total RBIs

Christopher Morel o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 96th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 83°.. Out of every team in action today, the 9th-worst infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.. Christopher Morel will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.. The Barrel% of Christopher Morel has significantly improved, with an increase from 10.3% last year to 15.8% this year.
Total RBIs

Jake Burger o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Jake Burger as MLB's 18th-best home run batter.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 83°.. Jake Burger has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 13.6% seasonal rate to 21.2% over the last two weeks.. Jake Burger has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 98.1-mph over the last week.. Jake Burger's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, going from 11.9% on the season to 27.3% in the last 14 days.
Total RBIs

Josh Jung o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Jung in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Josh Jung has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 83°.. Josh Jung's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 16.8% to 21.3%.. In the past two weeks, Josh Jung's 64.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.2%.
Total RBIs

Wyatt Langford o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 83°.. Wyatt Langford has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 95-mph in the past 14 days.. Wyatt Langford's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (18.3°) is significantly better than his 11.5° figure last season.
Total RBIs

Corey Seager o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Corey Seager projects as the 12th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Corey Seager is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 83°.. Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Corey Seager will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Corey Seager has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.2-mph average over the past week to his seasonal figure of 94.9-mph.
Total RBIs

Adolis Garcia o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his home run skill, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 83°.. Adolis Garcia's launch angle this season (21.2°) is a significant increase over his 14.8° figure last season.. Despite posting a .272 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Adolis Garcia has had some very poor luck given the .051 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .323.. This year, Adolis Garcia has an average exit velocity of 92.4 mph, which ranks among the best in MLB at the 89th percentile.
Total RBIs

Brandon Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 83°.. Batting from the opposite that Jack Leiter throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an edge in today's matchup.. Brandon Lowe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.3% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Jonathan Aranda o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 83°.. Jonathan Aranda will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jack Leiter today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jonathan Aranda will hold that advantage today.
Outs Recorded

Ryan Pepiot u17.5 Outs Recorded (+134)
Projection 16.2 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The Texas Rangers have been the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future. It is scheduled that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Charlie Ramos) in charge of the strike zone in this game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 83°.. Given the 1.14 deviation between Ryan Pepiot's 3.21 ERA and his 4.36 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year and ought to perform worse in future games.. Placing highest in the game this year, Texas Rangers batters jointly have put up a 16.1° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess the ability to lift the ball for power).
Total Bases

Wyatt Langford o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report calls for the 3rd-highest temperatures on the slate today at 83°.. Wyatt Langford has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph to 95-mph in the past 14 days.. Wyatt Langford's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (18.3°) is significantly better than his 11.5° figure last season.