Tampa Bay @ Houston Picks & Props

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which often leads to less offense. Taj Bradley will have the handedness advantage over Jeremy Pena in today's game. Jeremy Pena's exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 91.3-mph figure last year has dropped to 88.6-mph. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jeremy Pena's true offensive skill to be a .324, providing some evidence that he has had some very good luck this year given the .041 gap between that figure and his actual .365 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game. Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Junior Caminero has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last season's 89.5-mph average.

Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, increasing from 43.9% to 54.7%. Jose Caballero has posted a .320 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 84th percentile.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Yandy Diaz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last season's 91.9-mph EV. Yandy Diaz has been unlucky this year, putting up a .296 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .349 — a .053 disparity. Ranking in the 89th percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score this year, Yandy Diaz demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a core ability for achieving a high batting average.

Matt Thaiss will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today's game. Matt Thaiss's speed has improved this season. His 24.85 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.41 ft/sec now. When it comes to plate discipline, Matt Thaiss's talent is quite strong, posting a 1.63 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Batting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage today. Brandon Lowe has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last year's 89.8-mph EV.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all stadiums. Jonathan Aranda will hold the platoon advantage over Hunter Brown today. Jonathan Aranda's 14.5% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) grades out in the 93rd percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Jake Mangum has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Ranking in the 91st percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.92 ft/sec this year, Jake Mangum is notably quick.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jose Altuve is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Grading out in the 78th percentile, Jose Altuve has put up a .274 batting average this year.

Isaac Paredes is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.3% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage today. Isaac Paredes has compiled a .341 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, placing in the 76th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Isaac Paredes has compiled a .361 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 86th percentile.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game. Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christian Walker will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Christian Walker's true offensive ability to be a .330, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .053 disparity between that figure and his actual .277 wOBA. Christian Walker's 12.1% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) ranks in the 77th percentile this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Yainer Diaz will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Compared to last year, Yainer Diaz has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 11.7% to 17.7% this season. Despite posting a .287 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Yainer Diaz has suffered from bad luck given the .040 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .327.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 79th percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In notching a .360 BABIP this year, Jake Meyers grades out in the 94th percentile.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Last season, Victor Caratini had an average launch angle of 7.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 13.7°. Victor Caratini has posted a .336 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, placing in the 80th percentile. In notching a .281 batting average since the start of last season, Victor Caratini grades out in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 84th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Mauricio Dubon will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. By putting up a .273 batting average since the start of last season, Mauricio Dubon is ranked in the 83rd percentile.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all stadiums. Kameron Misner will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown in today's game.

Taylor Walls has gone over 0.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.