Tampa Bay @ Houston Picks & Props

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. The weather forecast calls for the 5th-best pitching conditions on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.4%) and will be challenged by the league's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game. Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today. In the past two weeks, Yandy Diaz's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. The weather forecast calls for the 5th-best pitching conditions on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Zack Littell will have the handedness advantage over Yainer Diaz in today's game. Yainer Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined in recent games, decreasing from 45.2% on the season to 22.2% over the last two weeks. Posting a .279 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Yainer Diaz has performed in the 20th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Junior Caminero is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today. Junior Caminero will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Colton Gordon in today's game. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Bats such as Junior Caminero with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Colton Gordon who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. The weather forecast calls for the 5th-best pitching conditions on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Hitting from the same side that Zack Littell throws from, Jeremy Pena will have a disadvantage in today's matchup. Jeremy Pena has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 14 days. Jeremy Pena's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased recently; his 88.6-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 80.5-mph over the last two weeks.

Jose Caballero is penciled in 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season. Batting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Jose Caballero will have an advantage in today's game. Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. In the past 14 days, Jose Caballero's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.4-mph over the course of the season to 93.5-mph in recent games. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 43.9% to 54.7%.

Zachary Dezenzo's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The shallowest left field fences among all major league stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park. Zachary Dezenzo will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The switch-hitting Taylor Walls will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Colton Gordon. Over the last two weeks, Taylor Walls's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.3%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.248) implies that Taylor Walls has experienced some negative variance this year with his .184 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile when estimating his batting average skill. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Mauricio Dubon will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In notching a .274 batting average since the start of last season, Mauricio Dubon is ranked in the 85th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 79th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past 14 days, Jake Meyers's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.7%. Sporting a .297 batting average this year, Jake Meyers finds himself in the 92nd percentile.

Batters such as Victor Caratini with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Zack Littell who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Victor Caratini will hold the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. Victor Caratini has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 10.3% seasonal rate to 18.2% over the past 14 days. Victor Caratini has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 106.2-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 91.5-mph. Checking in at the 79th percentile, Victor Caratini sports a .335 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage today. Jose Altuve has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph to 87.6-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Jake Mangum's BABIP talent is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jake Mangum has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Jake Mangum will get to bat from his strong side against Colton Gordon today. Extreme flyball bats like Jake Mangum usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Colton Gordon. Jake Mangum is very athletic, placing in the 90th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.91 ft/sec this year.

Danny Jansen will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Colton Gordon today. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Danny Jansen has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last year's 90.5-mph mark. Posting a 1.34 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Danny Jansen has shown favorable plate discipline, placing in the 96th percentile.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today. Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (46.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last two weeks, Isaac Paredes's 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.1%. Based on Statcast data, Isaac Paredes is in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .269.

Hitting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Curtis Mead will have an edge in today's matchup. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.250) implies that Curtis Mead has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .232 actual batting average. Ranking in the 83rd percentile, the hardest ball Curtis Mead has connected with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 112.4 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power skill. Curtis Mead ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (49.3% rate since the start of last season). The standard deviation of Curtis Mead's launch angle since the start of last season (26.1°) is in the 78th percentile. A low mark like this tends to lead to a higher rate of hits on balls in play.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. Christian Walker pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage today. Christian Walker has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 12.1% seasonal rate to 36.4% in the last 14 days. Christian Walker has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 91.1-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Christopher Morel will have the handedness advantage over Colton Gordon in today's game. Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel has made significant gains with his Barrel%, upping his 10.3% rate last season to 18% this season. Compared to last year, Christopher Morel has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.7% to 26.2% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup. Brandon Lowe has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 11.8% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the past two weeks. Brandon Lowe has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last season's 89.8-mph mark. Over the last 14 days, Brandon Lowe's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.2-mph over the course of the season to 107.4-mph in recent games.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.