Tampa Bay @ Houston Picks & Props

Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-smallest outfield in the league — generally good for long-balls. Chandler Simpson has experienced some negative variance in regards to his wOBA this year; his .279 rate is a fair amount lower than his .303 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-smallest outfield in the league — generally good for long-balls. Ranked in the 96th percentile, Jonathan Aranda has one of the highest average exit velocities in baseball since the start of last season (93.1-mph). Ranking in the 94th percentile, Jonathan Aranda sports a .388 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. The weather forecast calls for the 5th-most suitable pitching weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.4%) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup. Typically, bats like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Framber Valdez. Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. The weather forecast calls for the 5th-most suitable pitching weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Ryan Pepiot will hold the platoon advantage against Jeremy Pena in today's matchup. In the last 14 days, Jeremy Pena's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.5% down to 0%. Over the past two weeks, Jeremy Pena's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal EV of 88.6 mph to 80.5 mph.

The switch-hitting Taylor Walls will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Framber Valdez. In the last 14 days, Taylor Walls's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.3%. When it comes to his batting average, Taylor Walls has experienced some negative variance this year. His .184 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .248.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today. Over the last 14 days, Brandon Lowe has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 11.8% to 22.2%. Brandon Lowe has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last year's 89.8-mph figure. Brandon Lowe has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 107.4-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal mark of 95.2-mph.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel will hold the platoon advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.7% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 10.3% rate last year to 18% this year. Christopher Morel's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 14.7% to 26.2%.

Junior Caminero's batting average skill is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Junior Caminero will have the handedness advantage against Framber Valdez in today's matchup. Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Danny Jansen will have the handedness advantage over Framber Valdez in today's game. Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Extreme groundball bats like Danny Jansen are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez. Danny Jansen has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last year's 90.5-mph average. In terms of plate discipline, Danny Jansen's ability is quite good, posting a 1.34 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 96th percentile.

Jose Caballero has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Jose Caballero will have an edge today. Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Caballero has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 93.5-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 89.4-mph. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 43.9% to 54.7%.

Hitting from the opposite that Framber Valdez throws from, Curtis Mead will have the upper hand in today's matchup. In terms of his batting average, Curtis Mead has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .232 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .250. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Curtis Mead has made contact with reached a maximum exit velocity of 112.4 mph (a reliable stat to measure power), ranking in the 83rd percentile. Curtis Mead ranks in the 90th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (49.3% rate since the start of last season). A low launch angle standard deviation tends to lead to a higher BABIP, and Curtis Mead's 26.1° mark (78th percentile) since the start of last season indicates a strong hitting profile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage today. Jose Altuve has seen a big increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 87.6-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 84.6-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Jake Mangum is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Jake Mangum will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Framber Valdez in today's matchup.

Christian Walker is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. Christian Walker pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today's game. Christian Walker has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 12.1% seasonal rate to 36.4% over the last two weeks. Christian Walker has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99.8-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91.1-mph mark.

Victor Caratini is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Extreme flyball batters like Victor Caratini tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot. Victor Caratini will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Victor Caratini has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 10.3% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the last two weeks. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Victor Caratini's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.5-mph over the course of the season to 106.2-mph recently.

Yainer Diaz's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yainer Diaz is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game. The shallowest left field fences among all parks are found in Minute Maid Park. Yainer Diaz will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Yainer Diaz has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 9.7% seasonal rate to 22.2% in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 79th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage today. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Jake Meyers's 55.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.7%. Jake Meyers has notched a .297 batting average this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Mauricio Dubon will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Posting a .274 batting average since the start of last season, Mauricio Dubon has performed in the 85th percentile.

Zachary Dezenzo's BABIP skill is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The shallowest left field fences among all parks are found in Minute Maid Park. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Zachary Dezenzo will hold that advantage in today's game.

Isaac Paredes is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Isaac Paredes will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Isaac Paredes's 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.1%. Isaac Paredes has notched a .269 Expected Batting Average this year, ranking in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.