Texas @ Chicago picks
Rate Field
TEX vs CHW Picks
MLB Picks
Strikeouts Thrown

Jack Leiter u4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-105)
Projection 4.1 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jack Leiter to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (2nd-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Guaranteed Rate Field ranks as the #24 park in the majors for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Given that flyball batters hold a big edge over groundball pitchers, Jack Leiter and his 36.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult spot in today's game matching up with 2 opposing GB hitters.. Jack Leiter will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.. Jack Leiter has notched a 17% strikeout rate since the start of last season, checking in at the 23rd percentile.
Total RBIs

Miguel Vargas o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Miguel Vargas is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #6 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-least fair ground among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Miguel Vargas will hold that advantage in today's game.. Miguel Vargas has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 7.4% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last week.
Total RBIs

Jonah Heim o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #6 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-least fair ground among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. The Chicago White Sox outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs

Wyatt Langford o0.5 Total RBIs (+120)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Wyatt Langford projects as the 20th-best batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #6 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Wyatt Langford pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences today.. The Chicago White Sox outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs

Jake Burger o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Jake Burger projects as the 20th-best home run batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Burger is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #6 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jake Burger pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.2% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Chicago White Sox outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs

Marcus Semien o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #6 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Marcus Semien pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.6% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. The Chicago White Sox outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team on the slate today.. Despite posting a .236 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcus Semien has had bad variance on his side given the .088 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.
Total RBIs

Josh Jung o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Josh Jung's BABIP talent is projected in the 91st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Josh Jung is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #6 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-least fair ground among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. The Chicago White Sox outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team on the slate today.
Total RBIs

Adolis Garcia o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #6 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-least fair ground among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. The Chicago White Sox outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst out of every team on the slate today.. There has been a significant improvement in Adolis Garcia's launch angle from last season's 14.8° to 21.6° this season.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Matt Thaiss o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-145)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #6 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-least fair ground among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. Matt Thaiss will hold the platoon advantage over Jack Leiter today.. Matt Thaiss will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.. Matt Thaiss has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.5-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 88.2-mph mark.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Josh Rojas o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-125)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Guaranteed Rate Field profiles as the #6 park in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Guaranteed Rate Field has the 3rd-least fair ground among all major league parks — generally good for home runs.. Batting from the opposite that Jack Leiter throws from, Josh Rojas will have an edge in today's matchup.. The Texas Rangers infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams playing today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Josh Rojas will hold that advantage in today's matchup.