Tampa Bay @ Miami Picks & Props

Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. This matchup is forecasted to have the 5th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Batting from the same side that Max Meyer throws from, Yandy Diaz will be at a disadvantage in today's matchup. In today's matchup, Yandy Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.8% rate (99th percentile). Extreme groundball bats like Yandy Diaz generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Meyer.

Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense. This matchup is forecasted to have the 5th-most suitable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. In today's matchup, Xavier Edwards is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.1% rate (99th percentile). Xavier Edwards's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.1-mph figure last year has lowered to 84.2-mph. Xavier Edwards's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (4.8°) is quite a bit worse than his 10.8° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Javier Sanoja in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Javier Sanoja hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Javier Sanoja are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley. Javier Sanoja will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Javier Sanoja has been unlucky this year, compiling a .265 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .301 — a .036 disparity.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Extreme flyball hitters like Derek Hill usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Taj Bradley. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Derek Hill will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Derek Hill has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .224 mark is considerably lower than his .265 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Derek Hill's 11.2% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) grades out in the 82nd percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby as the 17th-best hitter in the game when it comes to his BABIP ability. Connor Norby has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Connor Norby will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Connor Norby has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 11.7% seasonal rate to 20% in the past 7 days. In the last week, Connor Norby's 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20%.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game. Jesus Sanchez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Jesus Sanchez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley. Jesus Sanchez will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage against Max Meyer in today's matchup. Brandon Lowe is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP. Brandon Lowe has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last season's 89.8-mph figure.

Graham Pauley will have the handedness advantage against Taj Bradley in today's game. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Graham Pauley will hold that advantage today. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.244) suggests that Graham Pauley has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .224 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 76th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Kyle Stowers is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game. Kyle Stowers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Taj Bradley today. Kyle Stowers will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Kyle Stowers has made substantial improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 11% rate last year to 23.8% this season.

Agustin Ramirez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. LoanDepot Park has the 5th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Agustin Ramirez will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Agustin Ramirez has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 11.4% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last 7 days. Agustin Ramirez has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.7-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 91.6-mph average.

Matt Mervis will have the handedness advantage over Taj Bradley in today's matchup. Matt Mervis will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Jonathan Aranda will have the handedness advantage over Max Meyer in today's matchup. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jonathan Aranda stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Jonathan Aranda's 71.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 56.7%.

Eric Wagaman is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Eric Wagaman will hold that advantage today.

When assessing his batting average skill, Chandler Simpson is projected as the 20th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Max Meyer throws from, Chandler Simpson will have an edge in today's game. Chandler Simpson is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.

Junior Caminero's batting average ability is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Junior Caminero is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. LoanDepot Park has the 5th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Junior Caminero has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.8-mph average to last year's 89.5-mph EV.

Jose Caballero has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 97.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal average of 88.3-mph. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, going from 43.9% to 53.7%. Posting a .318 BABIP since the start of last season, Jose Caballero has performed in the 82nd percentile.

Taylor Walls hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Taylor Walls's launch angle lately (22.3° over the past week) is a significant increase over his 13.8° seasonal figure. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Taylor Walls has been unlucky this year. His .249 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .294.

Ronny Simon will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Ronny Simon is notably toolsy, grading out in the 91st percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.9 ft/sec this year.

Kameron Misner will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Max Meyer today. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kameron Misner stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Batting from the opposite that Max Meyer throws from, Ben Rortvedt will have the upper hand today. Ben Rortvedt will probably have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.