St. Louis @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage over Aaron Nola in today's game. Hitters such as Nolan Gorman with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Aaron Nola who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#3-worst on the slate). Nolan Gorman's launch angle this season (24.8°) is quite a bit higher than his 20.4° figure last season.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved of late, rising from 35.5% on the season to 70% in the past 7 days. With a 1.02 K/BB rate this year, Nolan Arenado has demonstrated strong plate discipline, checking in at the 97th percentile.

Victor Scott II will have the handedness advantage against Aaron Nola in today's matchup. Victor Scott II has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Over the last 14 days, Victor Scott II's 52.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44%. Victor Scott II has put up a .284 batting average this year, placing in the 78th percentile.

Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trea Turner as the 10th-best batter in baseball when estimating his BABIP ability. Trea Turner is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Trea Turner will hold that advantage in today's game. Over the last 7 days, Trea Turner's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.1-mph over the course of the season to 100.8-mph recently.

Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Max Kepler will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Max Kepler has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 11.7% seasonal rate to 21.9% over the last 14 days. Max Kepler has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 93.8-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Willson Contreras has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 11.2% seasonal rate to 21.4% in the past two weeks. This season, Willson Contreras has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.2 mph compared to last year's 95.1 mph mark.

Masyn Winn is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.8°, Masyn Winn has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 25.6° figure over the last two weeks. Using Statcast metrics, Masyn Winn grades out in the 84th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .271. Masyn Winn has recorded a .265 batting average since the start of last season, grading out in the 78th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average skill. Brendan Donovan is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Brendan Donovan will hold the platoon advantage over Aaron Nola today. Brendan Donovan has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies.

Bryce Harper projects as the 13th-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game. Bryce Harper will have the handedness advantage over Sonny Gray in today's matchup. Bryce Harper has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, J.T. Realmuto ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team today. J.T. Realmuto will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. J.T. Realmuto has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 11.2% seasonal rate to 20% in the last 7 days. J.T. Realmuto has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 109.2-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 91.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup. Lars Nootbaar will have the handedness advantage against Aaron Nola today. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Lars Nootbaar has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 11.7% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Ivan Herrera's launch angle lately (26° in the past week's worth of games) is considerably better than his 10° seasonal mark. Ivan Herrera has put up a .375 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 98th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. In notching a .307 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ivan Herrera has performed in the 98th percentile.

Alec Burleson's batting average skill is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Nola throws from, Alec Burleson will have an advantage in today's game. Alec Burleson has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. Among all the teams playing today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Philadelphia Phillies. Alec Burleson has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.6-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.5-mph EV.

Bryson Stott's batting average talent is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryson Stott is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game. Bryson Stott will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today's game. Bryson Stott has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 18th-best batter in the game. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Kyle Schwarber will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team today. Kyle Schwarber will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team today. Alec Bohm will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats. Alec Bohm's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, rising from 13.7% on the season to 29.6% in the last two weeks. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Alec Bohm has had some very poor luck this year. His .274 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .310.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (90%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid. Jordan Walker will have the handedness advantage against Jesus Luzardo in today's matchup... and even better, Luzardo has a large platoon split. Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-worst infield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Homers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. This game is forecasted to have the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games on the slate today (90%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid. Given Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Pedro Pages will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate today. Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-worst infield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Pedro Pages has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph to 94.9-mph over the past week.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Brandon Marsh will have an edge today. Brandon Marsh has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team today. Brandon Marsh will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of every team today. Nick Castellanos will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Last year, Nick Castellanos had an average launch angle of 13.9° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 18.4°.

Jose Barrero has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.

Johan Rojas has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.